Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future
Durum wheat ( Triticum durum Desf.) is a minor cereal crop of key importance for making pasta, couscous, burghul, puddings, bread and many other traditional foods, due to its physical and chemical characteristics. The global demand for high-quality food made of durum wheat has been increasing, which...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2d68 |
| _version_ | 1797747524008673280 |
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| author | Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti Matteo Zampieri Conxita Royo |
| author_facet | Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti Matteo Zampieri Conxita Royo |
| author_sort | Andrej Ceglar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Durum wheat ( Triticum durum Desf.) is a minor cereal crop of key importance for making pasta, couscous, burghul, puddings, bread and many other traditional foods, due to its physical and chemical characteristics. The global demand for high-quality food made of durum wheat has been increasing, which poses a challenge in the face of climate change. Major share of durum wheat production is currently located in semi-arid climates, where the risk of climate extremes such as drought and heat stress will likely substantially increase in the future. To provide a first estimate of future global arable land climatically suitable for growing durum wheat, we develop a suitability model based on support vector machines. The current total share of global arable land climatically suitable to grow rainfed durum wheat is around 13%. Climate change may decrease the suitable area by 19% at mid-century and by 48% at the end of the century. Widespread loss of suitable areas is foreseen in the Mediterranean regions and northern America. On the other hand, climate may become suitable to grow durum wheat in many regions of central and western Europe, while the largest gain in suitability is estimated in some parts of Russia. The overall net loss of suitable areas requires the development and the future adoption of effective and sustainable strategies to stabilize production and adapt the entire food supply chain. Our study also clearly demonstrates the importance of limiting global warming to levels well below 2 °C at the end of the century, which would substantially limit the loss of climatically suitable areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-60236a2f09044b1686c0430630a6521f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:49Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-60236a2f09044b1686c0430630a6521f2023-08-09T15:06:58ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-01161010404910.1088/1748-9326/ac2d68Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the futureAndrej Ceglar0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8185-2074Andrea Toreti1Matteo Zampieri2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7558-1108Conxita Royo3European Commission, Joint Research Centre, JRC , Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra 21027, ItalyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, JRC , Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra 21027, ItalyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, JRC , Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra 21027, ItalyInstitute for Food and Agricultural Research and Technology, IRTA, Sustainable Field Crops Programme , 25198 Lleida, SpainDurum wheat ( Triticum durum Desf.) is a minor cereal crop of key importance for making pasta, couscous, burghul, puddings, bread and many other traditional foods, due to its physical and chemical characteristics. The global demand for high-quality food made of durum wheat has been increasing, which poses a challenge in the face of climate change. Major share of durum wheat production is currently located in semi-arid climates, where the risk of climate extremes such as drought and heat stress will likely substantially increase in the future. To provide a first estimate of future global arable land climatically suitable for growing durum wheat, we develop a suitability model based on support vector machines. The current total share of global arable land climatically suitable to grow rainfed durum wheat is around 13%. Climate change may decrease the suitable area by 19% at mid-century and by 48% at the end of the century. Widespread loss of suitable areas is foreseen in the Mediterranean regions and northern America. On the other hand, climate may become suitable to grow durum wheat in many regions of central and western Europe, while the largest gain in suitability is estimated in some parts of Russia. The overall net loss of suitable areas requires the development and the future adoption of effective and sustainable strategies to stabilize production and adapt the entire food supply chain. Our study also clearly demonstrates the importance of limiting global warming to levels well below 2 °C at the end of the century, which would substantially limit the loss of climatically suitable areas.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2d68durum wheatclimate changeclimate suitabilityclimate risk |
| spellingShingle | Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti Matteo Zampieri Conxita Royo Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future Environmental Research Letters durum wheat climate change climate suitability climate risk |
| title | Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future |
| title_full | Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future |
| title_fullStr | Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future |
| title_short | Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future |
| title_sort | global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future |
| topic | durum wheat climate change climate suitability climate risk |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2d68 |
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