The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change
After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württember...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2017-11-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/8/11/224 |
| _version_ | 1818678482157174784 |
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| author | Stefan Muthers Gudrun Laschewski Andreas Matzarakis |
| author_facet | Stefan Muthers Gudrun Laschewski Andreas Matzarakis |
| author_sort | Stefan Muthers |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württemberg). With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003) and +5.8% (2015) both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968–2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021–2050), with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070–2099) pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T09:15:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6064f3b2c6954cc6b688be02ede68691 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T09:15:58Z |
| publishDate | 2017-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-6064f3b2c6954cc6b688be02ede686912022-12-21T21:54:58ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332017-11-0181122410.3390/atmos8110224atmos8110224The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate ChangeStefan Muthers0Gudrun Laschewski1Andreas Matzarakis2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Research Center Human Biometeorologie, 79108 Freiburg, GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst, Research Center Human Biometeorologie, 79108 Freiburg, GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst, Research Center Human Biometeorologie, 79108 Freiburg, GermanyAfter 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württemberg). With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003) and +5.8% (2015) both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968–2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021–2050), with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070–2099) pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/8/11/224heat-wavesheat-related mortality20032015climate changeGermany |
| spellingShingle | Stefan Muthers Gudrun Laschewski Andreas Matzarakis The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change Atmosphere heat-waves heat-related mortality 2003 2015 climate change Germany |
| title | The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change |
| title_full | The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change |
| title_short | The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change |
| title_sort | summers 2003 and 2015 in south west germany heat waves and heat related mortality in the context of climate change |
| topic | heat-waves heat-related mortality 2003 2015 climate change Germany |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/8/11/224 |
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