Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit Model
This article uses the NMNL (nested multinominal logit) model to analyze the impact of different policies on the cost of owning a vehicle by a consumer and discusses the changes in the share of various fuel-driven types of passenger vehicles that may be brought by different policy portfolios. This ar...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | World Electric Vehicle Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/12/4/249 |
| _version_ | 1797499768111366144 |
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| author | Kexin Liu Hong Shi Bin Liu Xiaorong Jian |
| author_facet | Kexin Liu Hong Shi Bin Liu Xiaorong Jian |
| author_sort | Kexin Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This article uses the NMNL (nested multinominal logit) model to analyze the impact of different policies on the cost of owning a vehicle by a consumer and discusses the changes in the share of various fuel-driven types of passenger vehicles that may be brought by different policy portfolios. This article also considers the differences in the development of various technical routes, conducts the nested classification calculation of different models, divides the differences in product preferences and obtains the market share results that are more in line with the market development status, providing a basis for the formulation of policies related to new energy vehicles. The study found that the popularization of NEVs requires more cost-reducing measures. As policies that consumers can perceive, consumers are more sensitive to fiscal and taxation policies than other types of policies. Based on the calculation of policy effects, this article recommends a policy plan to gradually impose vehicle purchase tax on NEVs after 2024, increase the fuel tax rate in stages after 2025, and impose an excise tax on BEVs and FCEVs after 2030. The plan can guarantee the stability of support for NEVs and the gradual reduction of financial investment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:52:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-606932eb70a54eb699735b7833e3356e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2032-6653 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:52:09Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | World Electric Vehicle Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-606932eb70a54eb699735b7833e3356e2023-11-23T11:03:45ZengMDPI AGWorld Electric Vehicle Journal2032-66532021-11-0112424910.3390/wevj12040249Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit ModelKexin Liu0Hong Shi1Bin Liu2Xiaorong Jian3China Automotive Technology and Research Center, No.68, East Xianfeng Road, Dongli District, Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center, No.68, East Xianfeng Road, Dongli District, Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center, No.68, East Xianfeng Road, Dongli District, Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center, No.68, East Xianfeng Road, Dongli District, Tianjin 300300, ChinaThis article uses the NMNL (nested multinominal logit) model to analyze the impact of different policies on the cost of owning a vehicle by a consumer and discusses the changes in the share of various fuel-driven types of passenger vehicles that may be brought by different policy portfolios. This article also considers the differences in the development of various technical routes, conducts the nested classification calculation of different models, divides the differences in product preferences and obtains the market share results that are more in line with the market development status, providing a basis for the formulation of policies related to new energy vehicles. The study found that the popularization of NEVs requires more cost-reducing measures. As policies that consumers can perceive, consumers are more sensitive to fiscal and taxation policies than other types of policies. Based on the calculation of policy effects, this article recommends a policy plan to gradually impose vehicle purchase tax on NEVs after 2024, increase the fuel tax rate in stages after 2025, and impose an excise tax on BEVs and FCEVs after 2030. The plan can guarantee the stability of support for NEVs and the gradual reduction of financial investment.https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/12/4/249passenger vehiclemarket developmentpredictionpolicy |
| spellingShingle | Kexin Liu Hong Shi Bin Liu Xiaorong Jian Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit Model World Electric Vehicle Journal passenger vehicle market development prediction policy |
| title | Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit Model |
| title_full | Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit Model |
| title_fullStr | Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit Model |
| title_short | Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit Model |
| title_sort | research on new energy vehicle market penetration rate based on nested multinominal logit model |
| topic | passenger vehicle market development prediction policy |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/12/4/249 |
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