Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia
Study region: Main international rivers of Iberia (SW Europe): Douro, Tagus and Guadiana. Study focus: Iberia has long suffered from water scarcity which will worsen with projected reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature. Nonetheless, there has been almost no research concerning the futu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2017-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458181630129X |
| _version_ | 1819229192371306496 |
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| author | Selma B. Guerreiro Stephen Birkinshaw Chris Kilsby Hayley J. Fowler Elizabeth Lewis |
| author_facet | Selma B. Guerreiro Stephen Birkinshaw Chris Kilsby Hayley J. Fowler Elizabeth Lewis |
| author_sort | Selma B. Guerreiro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Main international rivers of Iberia (SW Europe): Douro, Tagus and Guadiana.
Study focus: Iberia has long suffered from water scarcity which will worsen with projected reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature. Nonetheless, there has been almost no research concerning the future discharges of these rivers. We examine an ensemble of climate model projections from CMIP5 RCP 8.5 and use two downscaling methods to produce a range of changes in discharge using a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrological model (SHETRAN) for historical (1961–1990) and future (2040–2070) periods.
New hydrological insights for the region: There is uncertainty in the sign of change in high (winter) discharges but most model runs show decreases in monthly, seasonal and annual discharges for all basins; especially for medium and low discharges, with all but one run showing future decreases. The magnitude of these decreases varies significantly for different CMIP5 ensemble members. However, autumn shows the biggest decreases (reaching −61% for the Douro, −71% in the Tagus, and −92% for the Guadiana) and the reductions are consistently larger for the Guadiana. This is the first study to explore a wide range of possible futures for these international basins. We show that, despite uncertainties in model projections, there is common behavior with reductions in mean and especially in low discharges which will have important implications for water resources, populations, ecology and agriculture. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T11:09:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6093eae49b8c4b329459b2b22b39b550 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T11:09:16Z |
| publishDate | 2017-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-6093eae49b8c4b329459b2b22b39b5502022-12-21T17:49:24ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182017-08-0112C23825210.1016/j.ejrh.2017.05.009Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in IberiaSelma B. GuerreiroStephen BirkinshawChris KilsbyHayley J. FowlerElizabeth LewisStudy region: Main international rivers of Iberia (SW Europe): Douro, Tagus and Guadiana. Study focus: Iberia has long suffered from water scarcity which will worsen with projected reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature. Nonetheless, there has been almost no research concerning the future discharges of these rivers. We examine an ensemble of climate model projections from CMIP5 RCP 8.5 and use two downscaling methods to produce a range of changes in discharge using a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrological model (SHETRAN) for historical (1961–1990) and future (2040–2070) periods. New hydrological insights for the region: There is uncertainty in the sign of change in high (winter) discharges but most model runs show decreases in monthly, seasonal and annual discharges for all basins; especially for medium and low discharges, with all but one run showing future decreases. The magnitude of these decreases varies significantly for different CMIP5 ensemble members. However, autumn shows the biggest decreases (reaching −61% for the Douro, −71% in the Tagus, and −92% for the Guadiana) and the reductions are consistently larger for the Guadiana. This is the first study to explore a wide range of possible futures for these international basins. We show that, despite uncertainties in model projections, there is common behavior with reductions in mean and especially in low discharges which will have important implications for water resources, populations, ecology and agriculture.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458181630129XDouroTagusGuadianaClimate changeDischargeFlowInternational treaty |
| spellingShingle | Selma B. Guerreiro Stephen Birkinshaw Chris Kilsby Hayley J. Fowler Elizabeth Lewis Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Douro Tagus Guadiana Climate change Discharge Flow International treaty |
| title | Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia |
| title_full | Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia |
| title_fullStr | Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia |
| title_short | Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia |
| title_sort | dry getting drier the future of transnational river basins in iberia |
| topic | Douro Tagus Guadiana Climate change Discharge Flow International treaty |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458181630129X |
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