The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong
Mass gatherings provide conditions for the transmission of infectious diseases and pose complex challenges to public health. Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and health experts called for suspension of gatherings in order to reduce social contact via which virus is transmitted. However,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9891527/?tool=EBI |
| _version_ | 1811171966114070528 |
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| author | Pengyu Zhu Xinying Tan Mingshu Wang Fei Guo Shuai Shi Zhizhao Li |
| author_facet | Pengyu Zhu Xinying Tan Mingshu Wang Fei Guo Shuai Shi Zhizhao Li |
| author_sort | Pengyu Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mass gatherings provide conditions for the transmission of infectious diseases and pose complex challenges to public health. Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and health experts called for suspension of gatherings in order to reduce social contact via which virus is transmitted. However, few studies have investigated the contribution of mass gatherings to COVID-19 transmission in local communities. In Hong Kong, the coincidence of the relaxation of group gathering restrictions with demonstrations against the National Security Law in mid-2020 raised concerns about the safety of mass gatherings under the pandemic. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and evaluates the importance of social distancing policies. With an aggregated dataset of epidemiological, city-level meteorological and socioeconomic data, a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is used for constructing a ‘synthetic Hong Kong’ from over 200 Chinese cities. This counterfactual control unit is used to simulate COVID-19 infection patterns (i.e., the number of total cases and daily new cases) in the absence of mass gatherings. Comparing the hypothetical trends and the actual ones, our results indicate that the infection rate observed in Hong Kong is substantially higher than that in the counterfactual control unit (2.63% vs. 0.07%). As estimated, mass gatherings increased the number of new infections by 62 cases (or 87.58% of total new cases) over the 10–day period and by 737 cases (or 97.23%) over the 30-day period. These findings suggest the necessity of tightening social distancing policies, especially the prohibition on group gathering regulation (POGGR), to prevent and control COVID-19 outbreaks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T17:23:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-609c79c86d694d72a8e7e73f2dce25fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T17:23:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-609c79c86d694d72a8e7e73f2dce25fa2023-02-05T05:30:56ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01182The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong KongPengyu ZhuXinying TanMingshu WangFei GuoShuai ShiZhizhao LiMass gatherings provide conditions for the transmission of infectious diseases and pose complex challenges to public health. Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and health experts called for suspension of gatherings in order to reduce social contact via which virus is transmitted. However, few studies have investigated the contribution of mass gatherings to COVID-19 transmission in local communities. In Hong Kong, the coincidence of the relaxation of group gathering restrictions with demonstrations against the National Security Law in mid-2020 raised concerns about the safety of mass gatherings under the pandemic. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and evaluates the importance of social distancing policies. With an aggregated dataset of epidemiological, city-level meteorological and socioeconomic data, a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is used for constructing a ‘synthetic Hong Kong’ from over 200 Chinese cities. This counterfactual control unit is used to simulate COVID-19 infection patterns (i.e., the number of total cases and daily new cases) in the absence of mass gatherings. Comparing the hypothetical trends and the actual ones, our results indicate that the infection rate observed in Hong Kong is substantially higher than that in the counterfactual control unit (2.63% vs. 0.07%). As estimated, mass gatherings increased the number of new infections by 62 cases (or 87.58% of total new cases) over the 10–day period and by 737 cases (or 97.23%) over the 30-day period. These findings suggest the necessity of tightening social distancing policies, especially the prohibition on group gathering regulation (POGGR), to prevent and control COVID-19 outbreaks.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9891527/?tool=EBI |
| spellingShingle | Pengyu Zhu Xinying Tan Mingshu Wang Fei Guo Shuai Shi Zhizhao Li The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong PLoS ONE |
| title | The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong |
| title_full | The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong |
| title_fullStr | The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong |
| title_short | The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong |
| title_sort | impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of covid 19 and the implications for social distancing policies evidence from hong kong |
| url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9891527/?tool=EBI |
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