Predicting the Future Age Distribution of Conifer and Broad-Leaved Trees Based on Survival Analysis: A Case Study on Natural Forests in Northern Japan
Predicting future stand conditions based on tree age is crucial for natural forest management. The objective of this study was to model and predict the future age distribution of <i>Picea jezoensis</i>, <i>Abies sachalinensis</i>, and broad-leaved trees by assessing the past...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/11/1912 |
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| author | Pavithra Rangani Wijenayake Takuya Hiroshima Masayoshi Takahashi Hideki Saito |
| author_facet | Pavithra Rangani Wijenayake Takuya Hiroshima Masayoshi Takahashi Hideki Saito |
| author_sort | Pavithra Rangani Wijenayake |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predicting future stand conditions based on tree age is crucial for natural forest management. The objective of this study was to model and predict the future age distribution of <i>Picea jezoensis</i>, <i>Abies sachalinensis</i>, and broad-leaved trees by assessing the past and current survival trends of preserved stands located at the University of Tokyo Hokkaido Forests (UTHF), Furano, Japan. This study analyzed forest census data of four plots (927 trees) in a preserved permanent area over 30 years (1989–2019). Individual tree-ring data were identified using a resistograph to determine the current tree age of the targeted trees. The predicted age distributions nearly converged to the shape of the survival probability curve. Among the scenario predictions, the multimodal age class distribution of <i>P. jezoensis</i> was predominant among all prediction scenarios. In contrast, the exponential shape of <i>A sachalinensis</i> and the age distribution of broad-leaved trees in the 100% scenario gradually shifted to the multimodal shape at the 50% scenario prediction. The species composition of conifer and broad-leaved trees and their age distribution would reach stable states in the long run by reaching a climax state. Therefore, it is theoretically possible to maintain stands under the pre-climax stage by allowing high growth rates at the stand level. The suggested age class-prediction of living and dead trees can improve the natural forest management of UTHF. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T18:19:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-60d7719e3f53493a9f1ad710bd785a8d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T18:19:36Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-60d7719e3f53493a9f1ad710bd785a8d2023-11-24T08:23:57ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072022-11-011311191210.3390/f13111912Predicting the Future Age Distribution of Conifer and Broad-Leaved Trees Based on Survival Analysis: A Case Study on Natural Forests in Northern JapanPavithra Rangani Wijenayake0Takuya Hiroshima1Masayoshi Takahashi2Hideki Saito3Research Planning Department, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba 305-8687, JapanDepartment of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, JapanCenter for Forest Damage and Risk Management, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba 305-8687, JapanDepartment of Forest Management, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba 305-8687, JapanPredicting future stand conditions based on tree age is crucial for natural forest management. The objective of this study was to model and predict the future age distribution of <i>Picea jezoensis</i>, <i>Abies sachalinensis</i>, and broad-leaved trees by assessing the past and current survival trends of preserved stands located at the University of Tokyo Hokkaido Forests (UTHF), Furano, Japan. This study analyzed forest census data of four plots (927 trees) in a preserved permanent area over 30 years (1989–2019). Individual tree-ring data were identified using a resistograph to determine the current tree age of the targeted trees. The predicted age distributions nearly converged to the shape of the survival probability curve. Among the scenario predictions, the multimodal age class distribution of <i>P. jezoensis</i> was predominant among all prediction scenarios. In contrast, the exponential shape of <i>A sachalinensis</i> and the age distribution of broad-leaved trees in the 100% scenario gradually shifted to the multimodal shape at the 50% scenario prediction. The species composition of conifer and broad-leaved trees and their age distribution would reach stable states in the long run by reaching a climax state. Therefore, it is theoretically possible to maintain stands under the pre-climax stage by allowing high growth rates at the stand level. The suggested age class-prediction of living and dead trees can improve the natural forest management of UTHF.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/11/1912survival analysis<i>Picea jezoensis</i><i>Abies sachalinensis</i>natural forestsage class distribution |
| spellingShingle | Pavithra Rangani Wijenayake Takuya Hiroshima Masayoshi Takahashi Hideki Saito Predicting the Future Age Distribution of Conifer and Broad-Leaved Trees Based on Survival Analysis: A Case Study on Natural Forests in Northern Japan Forests survival analysis <i>Picea jezoensis</i> <i>Abies sachalinensis</i> natural forests age class distribution |
| title | Predicting the Future Age Distribution of Conifer and Broad-Leaved Trees Based on Survival Analysis: A Case Study on Natural Forests in Northern Japan |
| title_full | Predicting the Future Age Distribution of Conifer and Broad-Leaved Trees Based on Survival Analysis: A Case Study on Natural Forests in Northern Japan |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Future Age Distribution of Conifer and Broad-Leaved Trees Based on Survival Analysis: A Case Study on Natural Forests in Northern Japan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Future Age Distribution of Conifer and Broad-Leaved Trees Based on Survival Analysis: A Case Study on Natural Forests in Northern Japan |
| title_short | Predicting the Future Age Distribution of Conifer and Broad-Leaved Trees Based on Survival Analysis: A Case Study on Natural Forests in Northern Japan |
| title_sort | predicting the future age distribution of conifer and broad leaved trees based on survival analysis a case study on natural forests in northern japan |
| topic | survival analysis <i>Picea jezoensis</i> <i>Abies sachalinensis</i> natural forests age class distribution |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/11/1912 |
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