Probabilistic Design Method for Aircraft Thermal Protective Layers Based on Surrogate Models
In this study, a probabilistic method was proposed for an aircraft’s thermal protective layers. The uncertainties of material properties, geometric dimensions, and incoming flow environments were considered for the design inputs. To accelerate the design efficiency, Latin hypercube sampling and surr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/5/1051 |
| _version_ | 1827319711659982848 |
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| author | Zhongcan Chen Kai Zhang Shanshan Zhao Feng Li Fengtao Xu Min Chen |
| author_facet | Zhongcan Chen Kai Zhang Shanshan Zhao Feng Li Fengtao Xu Min Chen |
| author_sort | Zhongcan Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, a probabilistic method was proposed for an aircraft’s thermal protective layers. The uncertainties of material properties, geometric dimensions, and incoming flow environments were considered for the design inputs. To accelerate the design efficiency, Latin hypercube sampling and surrogate models were built based on finite element method calculations to enhance the simulation efficiency. Thus, the Monte Carlo method can be implemented with such a fast simulation method and produce a massive number of samples for the uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, exploring their impact on the back temperature of the thermal protection layer. Compared to the deterministic method with the extreme deviation design, the probabilistic design yields a weight reduction of 15.61%. This indicates that probabilistic design is an efficient approach to enhance the performance of aircraft and reduce the overall weight of the aircraft. The general goal of this study is to provide a new design method for the coating film of thermal protection systems by considering multiple sources of uncertainties. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-25T00:31:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-619d28b76cac479e854f3fb2c7d9972b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-25T00:31:07Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-619d28b76cac479e854f3fb2c7d9972b2024-03-12T16:43:09ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732024-02-01175105110.3390/en17051051Probabilistic Design Method for Aircraft Thermal Protective Layers Based on Surrogate ModelsZhongcan Chen0Kai Zhang1Shanshan Zhao2Feng Li3Fengtao Xu4Min Chen5China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, ChinaChina Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, ChinaChina Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, ChinaChina Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, ChinaChina Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, ChinaSchool of Aerospace Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaIn this study, a probabilistic method was proposed for an aircraft’s thermal protective layers. The uncertainties of material properties, geometric dimensions, and incoming flow environments were considered for the design inputs. To accelerate the design efficiency, Latin hypercube sampling and surrogate models were built based on finite element method calculations to enhance the simulation efficiency. Thus, the Monte Carlo method can be implemented with such a fast simulation method and produce a massive number of samples for the uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, exploring their impact on the back temperature of the thermal protection layer. Compared to the deterministic method with the extreme deviation design, the probabilistic design yields a weight reduction of 15.61%. This indicates that probabilistic design is an efficient approach to enhance the performance of aircraft and reduce the overall weight of the aircraft. The general goal of this study is to provide a new design method for the coating film of thermal protection systems by considering multiple sources of uncertainties.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/5/1051probabilistic designthermal protection systemsurrogate modelsuncertainty |
| spellingShingle | Zhongcan Chen Kai Zhang Shanshan Zhao Feng Li Fengtao Xu Min Chen Probabilistic Design Method for Aircraft Thermal Protective Layers Based on Surrogate Models Energies probabilistic design thermal protection system surrogate models uncertainty |
| title | Probabilistic Design Method for Aircraft Thermal Protective Layers Based on Surrogate Models |
| title_full | Probabilistic Design Method for Aircraft Thermal Protective Layers Based on Surrogate Models |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Design Method for Aircraft Thermal Protective Layers Based on Surrogate Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Design Method for Aircraft Thermal Protective Layers Based on Surrogate Models |
| title_short | Probabilistic Design Method for Aircraft Thermal Protective Layers Based on Surrogate Models |
| title_sort | probabilistic design method for aircraft thermal protective layers based on surrogate models |
| topic | probabilistic design thermal protection system surrogate models uncertainty |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/5/1051 |
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