Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security
Abstract In recent years, global hunger has begun to rise, returning to levels from a decade ago. Climate change is a key driver behind these recent rises and is one of the leading causes of severe food crises. When coupled with population growth and land use change, future climate variability is pr...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Food and Energy Security |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.261 |
| _version_ | 1818725859724361728 |
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| author | Amy Molotoks Pete Smith Terence P. Dawson |
| author_facet | Amy Molotoks Pete Smith Terence P. Dawson |
| author_sort | Amy Molotoks |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In recent years, global hunger has begun to rise, returning to levels from a decade ago. Climate change is a key driver behind these recent rises and is one of the leading causes of severe food crises. When coupled with population growth and land use change, future climate variability is predicted to have profound impacts on global food security. We examine future global impacts of climate variability, population, and land use change on food security to 2050, using the modeling framework FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses national food balance sheets (FBS) to determine mean per capita calories, hence incorporating an assumption that minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER) remain constant. To account for climate variability, we use two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), alongside three Shared Socio‐economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios incorporating land use and population change within the model. Our results indicate that SSP scenarios have a larger impact on future food insecurity, in particular because of projected changes in population. Countries with a projected decrease in population growth had higher food security, while those with a projected rapid population growth tended to experience the worst impacts on food security. Although climate change scenarios had an effect on future crop yields, population growth appeared to be the dominant driver of change in undernourishment prevalence. Therefore, strategies to mitigate the consequences of projected population growth, including improved maternal health care, increasing equality of access to food at the national level, closing the yield gap, and changes in trade patterns, are essential to ensuring severe future food insecurity is avoided. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T21:49:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-61b67b45973c471f8b39f46a03d8a42b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2048-3694 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T21:49:00Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Food and Energy Security |
| spelling | doaj.art-61b67b45973c471f8b39f46a03d8a42b2022-12-21T21:31:21ZengWileyFood and Energy Security2048-36942021-02-01101n/an/a10.1002/fes3.261Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food securityAmy Molotoks0Pete Smith1Terence P. Dawson2Department of Environment and Geography Stockholm Environment Institute York University of York York UKInstitute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UKDepartment of Geography King's College London London UKAbstract In recent years, global hunger has begun to rise, returning to levels from a decade ago. Climate change is a key driver behind these recent rises and is one of the leading causes of severe food crises. When coupled with population growth and land use change, future climate variability is predicted to have profound impacts on global food security. We examine future global impacts of climate variability, population, and land use change on food security to 2050, using the modeling framework FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses national food balance sheets (FBS) to determine mean per capita calories, hence incorporating an assumption that minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER) remain constant. To account for climate variability, we use two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), alongside three Shared Socio‐economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios incorporating land use and population change within the model. Our results indicate that SSP scenarios have a larger impact on future food insecurity, in particular because of projected changes in population. Countries with a projected decrease in population growth had higher food security, while those with a projected rapid population growth tended to experience the worst impacts on food security. Although climate change scenarios had an effect on future crop yields, population growth appeared to be the dominant driver of change in undernourishment prevalence. Therefore, strategies to mitigate the consequences of projected population growth, including improved maternal health care, increasing equality of access to food at the national level, closing the yield gap, and changes in trade patterns, are essential to ensuring severe future food insecurity is avoided.https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.261FEEDME modelfood securityundernourishment |
| spellingShingle | Amy Molotoks Pete Smith Terence P. Dawson Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security Food and Energy Security FEEDME model food security undernourishment |
| title | Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security |
| title_full | Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security |
| title_short | Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security |
| title_sort | impacts of land use population and climate change on global food security |
| topic | FEEDME model food security undernourishment |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.261 |
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