Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal
Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus <i>Culicoides</i> and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to e...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Microorganisms |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/8/11/1766 |
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| author | Marie Cicille Ba Gahn Fallou Niakh Mamadou Ciss Ismaila Seck Modou Moustapha Lo Assane Gueye Fall Biram Biteye Moussa Fall Mbengué Ndiaye Aminata Ba Momar Talla Seck Baba Sall Mbargou Lo Coumba Faye Cécile Squarzoni-Diaw Alioune Ka Yves Amevoin Andrea Apolloni |
| author_facet | Marie Cicille Ba Gahn Fallou Niakh Mamadou Ciss Ismaila Seck Modou Moustapha Lo Assane Gueye Fall Biram Biteye Moussa Fall Mbengué Ndiaye Aminata Ba Momar Talla Seck Baba Sall Mbargou Lo Coumba Faye Cécile Squarzoni-Diaw Alioune Ka Yves Amevoin Andrea Apolloni |
| author_sort | Marie Cicille Ba Gahn |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus <i>Culicoides</i> and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio <inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mo> </mo><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of <i>C. imicola</i>, <i>C. oxystoma</i>, <i>C. enderleini</i>, and <i>C. miombo</i> from north to south. <inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak (<inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (<inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren’t positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:56:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-61cbcdd86b7244a6826589d754c77dfa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-2607 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:56:51Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Microorganisms |
| spelling | doaj.art-61cbcdd86b7244a6826589d754c77dfa2023-11-20T20:30:44ZengMDPI AGMicroorganisms2076-26072020-11-01811176610.3390/microorganisms8111766Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in SenegalMarie Cicille Ba Gahn0Fallou Niakh1Mamadou Ciss2Ismaila Seck3Modou Moustapha Lo4Assane Gueye Fall5Biram Biteye6Moussa Fall7Mbengué Ndiaye8Aminata Ba9Momar Talla Seck10Baba Sall11Mbargou Lo12Coumba Faye13Cécile Squarzoni-Diaw14Alioune Ka15Yves Amevoin16Andrea Apolloni17Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalFAO, ECTAD Regional Office for Africa, 2 Gamel Abdul Nasser Road, P.O. Box GP 1628, Accra, GhanaInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalDirection des Services Vétérinaires, Dakar 45677, SenegalDirection des Services Vétérinaires, Dakar 45677, SenegalDirection des Services Vétérinaires, Dakar 45677, SenegalASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, F-34398 Montpellier, FranceInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalInstitut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Laboratoire National de l’Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (ISRA-LNERV), Dakar-Hann BP 2057, SenegalBluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus <i>Culicoides</i> and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio <inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mo> </mo><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of <i>C. imicola</i>, <i>C. oxystoma</i>, <i>C. enderleini</i>, and <i>C. miombo</i> from north to south. <inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak (<inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (<inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren’t positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/8/11/1766vector abundance modelcompartmental modelbasic reproduction numberrisk map |
| spellingShingle | Marie Cicille Ba Gahn Fallou Niakh Mamadou Ciss Ismaila Seck Modou Moustapha Lo Assane Gueye Fall Biram Biteye Moussa Fall Mbengué Ndiaye Aminata Ba Momar Talla Seck Baba Sall Mbargou Lo Coumba Faye Cécile Squarzoni-Diaw Alioune Ka Yves Amevoin Andrea Apolloni Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal Microorganisms vector abundance model compartmental model basic reproduction number risk map |
| title | Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal |
| title_full | Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal |
| title_short | Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal |
| title_sort | assessing the risk of occurrence of bluetongue in senegal |
| topic | vector abundance model compartmental model basic reproduction number risk map |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/8/11/1766 |
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