The Effects of Drought in the Huaibei Plain of China Due to Climate Change
Damage from climate change is widespread throughout the world. This change has brought about calamities, the most prevalent of which is the emergence of numerous droughts which are increasingly threatening human lives. In this paper, we studied the spatial and temporal variations of drought under th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/860 |
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| author | Ousmane Badji Yonghua Zhu Haishen Lü Kanon Guédet Guédé Tingxing Chen Abdoulaye Oumarou Kouassi Bienvenue Mikael Onan Yao Sika Brice |
| author_facet | Ousmane Badji Yonghua Zhu Haishen Lü Kanon Guédet Guédé Tingxing Chen Abdoulaye Oumarou Kouassi Bienvenue Mikael Onan Yao Sika Brice |
| author_sort | Ousmane Badji |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Damage from climate change is widespread throughout the world. This change has brought about calamities, the most prevalent of which is the emergence of numerous droughts which are increasingly threatening human lives. In this paper, we studied the spatial and temporal variations of drought under the effect of climate change in the Huaibei Plain, which is a very important agricultural zone in China. Drought has attracted increasing attention in research due to its heavy impact on agriculture, the environment, livelihood, and food security. The SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) has been used in this study to express and identify drought events in the Huaibei Plain due to climate change. A general circulation model (GCM), HadGEM2-AO, which was the most appropriate for the study area’s precipitation simulation, and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were used to analyze and compare the drought effect for the baseline (1985–2017) and the future climate scenarios (2025–2090). At 3 and 6 months, the SPEI successfully detects agricultural drought in temporal and spatial variation. However, according to the analysis, more severe agricultural drought events are foreseen in the future than in the baseline because of climate change. SPEI performed better than SPI in detecting drought in the baseline and simulated data due to increased evapotranspiration. Between the SPEI-3 and SPEI-6, the Pearson coefficient correlation reveals a positive association. The Mann-Kendall test was used to cover the two studied periods in order to establish the drought trend. Both decreasing and increasing trends, in different timescales, were detected by Sen’s Slope in the baseline and future periods with all RCPs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:57:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-61d26cf3c3b947fdb93dcd127e87b45d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:57:38Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-61d26cf3c3b947fdb93dcd127e87b45d2023-11-18T00:25:55ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-05-0114586010.3390/atmos14050860The Effects of Drought in the Huaibei Plain of China Due to Climate ChangeOusmane Badji0Yonghua Zhu1Haishen Lü2Kanon Guédet Guédé3Tingxing Chen4Abdoulaye Oumarou5Kouassi Bienvenue Mikael Onan Yao6Sika Brice7State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaCollege of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaDamage from climate change is widespread throughout the world. This change has brought about calamities, the most prevalent of which is the emergence of numerous droughts which are increasingly threatening human lives. In this paper, we studied the spatial and temporal variations of drought under the effect of climate change in the Huaibei Plain, which is a very important agricultural zone in China. Drought has attracted increasing attention in research due to its heavy impact on agriculture, the environment, livelihood, and food security. The SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) has been used in this study to express and identify drought events in the Huaibei Plain due to climate change. A general circulation model (GCM), HadGEM2-AO, which was the most appropriate for the study area’s precipitation simulation, and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were used to analyze and compare the drought effect for the baseline (1985–2017) and the future climate scenarios (2025–2090). At 3 and 6 months, the SPEI successfully detects agricultural drought in temporal and spatial variation. However, according to the analysis, more severe agricultural drought events are foreseen in the future than in the baseline because of climate change. SPEI performed better than SPI in detecting drought in the baseline and simulated data due to increased evapotranspiration. Between the SPEI-3 and SPEI-6, the Pearson coefficient correlation reveals a positive association. The Mann-Kendall test was used to cover the two studied periods in order to establish the drought trend. Both decreasing and increasing trends, in different timescales, were detected by Sen’s Slope in the baseline and future periods with all RCPs.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/860SPEIdroughtGCMsHadGEM2-AOtrend analysisclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Ousmane Badji Yonghua Zhu Haishen Lü Kanon Guédet Guédé Tingxing Chen Abdoulaye Oumarou Kouassi Bienvenue Mikael Onan Yao Sika Brice The Effects of Drought in the Huaibei Plain of China Due to Climate Change Atmosphere SPEI drought GCMs HadGEM2-AO trend analysis climate change |
| title | The Effects of Drought in the Huaibei Plain of China Due to Climate Change |
| title_full | The Effects of Drought in the Huaibei Plain of China Due to Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | The Effects of Drought in the Huaibei Plain of China Due to Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Effects of Drought in the Huaibei Plain of China Due to Climate Change |
| title_short | The Effects of Drought in the Huaibei Plain of China Due to Climate Change |
| title_sort | effects of drought in the huaibei plain of china due to climate change |
| topic | SPEI drought GCMs HadGEM2-AO trend analysis climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/860 |
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