Stochastic two-group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibility
Stochastic epidemic models with two groups are formulated and applied to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. In recent emerging diseases, disease spread has been attributed to superspreaders, highly infectious individuals that infect a large number of susceptible individuals. In some re-em...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1538462 |
| _version_ | 1828164757209743360 |
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| author | Aadrita Nandi Linda J. S. Allen |
| author_facet | Aadrita Nandi Linda J. S. Allen |
| author_sort | Aadrita Nandi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Stochastic epidemic models with two groups are formulated and applied to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. In recent emerging diseases, disease spread has been attributed to superspreaders, highly infectious individuals that infect a large number of susceptible individuals. In some re-emerging infectious diseases, disease spread is attributed to waning immunity in susceptible hosts. We apply a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study disease emergence or re-emergence from different groups, where the transmission rates depend on either the infectious host or the susceptible host. Multitype branching processes approximate the dynamics of the CTMC model near the disease-free equilibrium and are used to estimate the probability of a minor or a major epidemic. It is shown that the probability of a major epidemic is greater if initiated by an individual from the superspreader group or by an individual from the highly susceptible group. The models are applied to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and measles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T01:31:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-62104c73e7014df7a144fd4e2bcf9815 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1751-3758 1751-3766 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T01:31:46Z |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-62104c73e7014df7a144fd4e2bcf98152022-12-22T03:53:27ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal of Biological Dynamics1751-37581751-37662019-03-0113020122410.1080/17513758.2018.15384621538462Stochastic two-group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibilityAadrita Nandi0Linda J. S. Allen1Texas Tech UniversityTexas Tech UniversityStochastic epidemic models with two groups are formulated and applied to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. In recent emerging diseases, disease spread has been attributed to superspreaders, highly infectious individuals that infect a large number of susceptible individuals. In some re-emerging infectious diseases, disease spread is attributed to waning immunity in susceptible hosts. We apply a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study disease emergence or re-emergence from different groups, where the transmission rates depend on either the infectious host or the susceptible host. Multitype branching processes approximate the dynamics of the CTMC model near the disease-free equilibrium and are used to estimate the probability of a minor or a major epidemic. It is shown that the probability of a major epidemic is greater if initiated by an individual from the superspreader group or by an individual from the highly susceptible group. The models are applied to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and measles.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1538462Branching processMarkov chainsuperspreader |
| spellingShingle | Aadrita Nandi Linda J. S. Allen Stochastic two-group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibility Journal of Biological Dynamics Branching process Markov chain superspreader |
| title | Stochastic two-group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibility |
| title_full | Stochastic two-group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibility |
| title_fullStr | Stochastic two-group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibility |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stochastic two-group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibility |
| title_short | Stochastic two-group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibility |
| title_sort | stochastic two group models with transmission dependent on host infectivity or susceptibility |
| topic | Branching process Markov chain superspreader |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1538462 |
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