Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North Pacific
Abstract Marine hazards often occur unexpectedly. Long-term (> few weeks) projections are sometimes needed to predict the potential route of drifting targets (e.g. pumice, oil, shipwreck) in order to prevent further disaster, yet reliable long-term forecast data may be unavailable. The present st...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31058-0 |
| _version_ | 1797864753006116864 |
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| author | Yu-Lin K. Chang Iona M. McIntosh Toru Miyama Yasumasa Miyazawa |
| author_facet | Yu-Lin K. Chang Iona M. McIntosh Toru Miyama Yasumasa Miyazawa |
| author_sort | Yu-Lin K. Chang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Marine hazards often occur unexpectedly. Long-term (> few weeks) projections are sometimes needed to predict the potential route of drifting targets (e.g. pumice, oil, shipwreck) in order to prevent further disaster, yet reliable long-term forecast data may be unavailable. The present study examined the long-term projection of pumice dispersion originating from the 2021 submarine eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba volcano, Japan, based on hindcast reanalysis of the past 28 years of wind and ocean currents using the particle tracking method. The ensemble distribution showed a wide dispersion, which was dominated by the ocean currents. By contrast, wind provided a relatively uniform transport. Apart from the prevailing wind, typhoons also play a role in affecting pumice dispersion. The multi-year simulation provides a general view of pumice dispersion accounting for different uncertainty, which could be used for deducing the potential dispersion under different wind and ocean conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T22:57:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-627c92640a44419abe17488a68d9c1fb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T22:57:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-627c92640a44419abe17488a68d9c1fb2023-03-22T11:10:09ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-03-0113111310.1038/s41598-023-31058-0Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North PacificYu-Lin K. Chang0Iona M. McIntosh1Toru Miyama2Yasumasa Miyazawa3Application Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologySolid Earth Geochemistry Research Group, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyApplication Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyApplication Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyAbstract Marine hazards often occur unexpectedly. Long-term (> few weeks) projections are sometimes needed to predict the potential route of drifting targets (e.g. pumice, oil, shipwreck) in order to prevent further disaster, yet reliable long-term forecast data may be unavailable. The present study examined the long-term projection of pumice dispersion originating from the 2021 submarine eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba volcano, Japan, based on hindcast reanalysis of the past 28 years of wind and ocean currents using the particle tracking method. The ensemble distribution showed a wide dispersion, which was dominated by the ocean currents. By contrast, wind provided a relatively uniform transport. Apart from the prevailing wind, typhoons also play a role in affecting pumice dispersion. The multi-year simulation provides a general view of pumice dispersion accounting for different uncertainty, which could be used for deducing the potential dispersion under different wind and ocean conditions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31058-0 |
| spellingShingle | Yu-Lin K. Chang Iona M. McIntosh Toru Miyama Yasumasa Miyazawa Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North Pacific Scientific Reports |
| title | Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North Pacific |
| title_full | Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North Pacific |
| title_fullStr | Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North Pacific |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North Pacific |
| title_short | Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North Pacific |
| title_sort | projection of august 2021 pumice dispersion from the fukutoku oka no ba eruption in the western north pacific |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31058-0 |
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