The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis
The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The ma...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/14/3691 |
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| author | Iztok Podbregar Goran Šimić Mirjana Radovanović Sanja Filipović Damjan Maletič Polona Šprajc |
| author_facet | Iztok Podbregar Goran Šimić Mirjana Radovanović Sanja Filipović Damjan Maletič Polona Šprajc |
| author_sort | Iztok Podbregar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:23:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-628b50b36de24286ad759d088b1cce3e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:23:41Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-628b50b36de24286ad759d088b1cce3e2023-11-20T07:08:49ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732020-07-011314369110.3390/en13143691The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability AnalysisIztok Podbregar0Goran Šimić1Mirjana Radovanović2Sanja Filipović3Damjan Maletič4Polona Šprajc5Department of Organization and Management, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor, Kidričeva cesta 55a, Kranj 4000 SloveniaDepartment for Simulations and Distance Learning, University of Defense in Belgrade, Pavla Jurišića Šturma 1, Belgrade 11000, SerbiaDepartment of Energy Security, Faculty of Security Studies, Educons University, 87 Vojvode Putnika Street, Sremska Kamenica 21208, SerbiaDepartment of Economic Theory and Analysis, Faculty of Business, Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, Belgrade 11000, SerbiaDepartment of Enterprise Engineering, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor, Kidričeva cesta 55a, Kranj 4000, SloveniaDepartment of Organization and Management, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor, Kidričeva cesta 55a, Kranj 4000 SloveniaThe world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/14/3691energy and economy transitiondecision makinginternational energy security risk indexmultiple regression analysismulticollinearity testmulticollinearity test with variance inflation factors |
| spellingShingle | Iztok Podbregar Goran Šimić Mirjana Radovanović Sanja Filipović Damjan Maletič Polona Šprajc The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis Energies energy and economy transition decision making international energy security risk index multiple regression analysis multicollinearity test multicollinearity test with variance inflation factors |
| title | The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis |
| title_full | The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis |
| title_fullStr | The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis |
| title_short | The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis |
| title_sort | international energy security risk index in sustainable energy and economy transition decision making a reliability analysis |
| topic | energy and economy transition decision making international energy security risk index multiple regression analysis multicollinearity test multicollinearity test with variance inflation factors |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/14/3691 |
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