Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe
Abstract This study aimed to estimate the optimal mix of frost resistant crops and land area needed to provide basic nutrition during various nuclear winter scenarios for New Zealand (NZ), a temperate island nation. It used linear programming to minimize land area required for cropping while produci...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-05-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35354-7 |
| _version_ | 1797817983573164032 |
|---|---|
| author | Nick Wilson Ben Payne Matt Boyd |
| author_facet | Nick Wilson Ben Payne Matt Boyd |
| author_sort | Nick Wilson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study aimed to estimate the optimal mix of frost resistant crops and land area needed to provide basic nutrition during various nuclear winter scenarios for New Zealand (NZ), a temperate island nation. It used linear programming to minimize land area required for cropping while producing enough food to achieve dietary energy and protein requirements for the whole population. The potential agricultural impacts of three nuclear winter scenarios on NZ, were sourced from the literature. The optimized combinations of frost resistant crops that were found to feed the entire population were, in descending order: wheat and carrots; sugar beet; oats; onions and carrots; cabbage and barley; canola and cabbage; linseed and parsnip; rye and lupins; swede and field beans; and cauliflower. But in terms of current production levels of these frost resistant crops in NZ, there would be a 26% shortfall for the “war without a nuclear winter” scenario and a 71% shortfall for the severe nuclear winter scenario (150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere with a 61% decline in crop yields). In conclusion, at current production levels, frost resistant food crops could not feed all NZ citizens following a nuclear war. There is a need for the NZ Government to conduct a detailed pre-war analysis on how these shortfalls are best addressed. For example, by: increased pre-war production of these crops and/or post-war scalability; growing enough frost sensitive crops (i.e., in greenhouses or the warmest parts of the country); and/or ensuring continuing production of food derived from livestock fed on frost resistant grasses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:01:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-62b1d15c39714d32849a20e172a9a7b2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:01:34Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-62b1d15c39714d32849a20e172a9a7b22023-05-28T11:17:01ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-05-0113111310.1038/s41598-023-35354-7Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastropheNick Wilson0Ben Payne1Matt Boyd2University of OtagoMassey UniversityAdapt Research LtdAbstract This study aimed to estimate the optimal mix of frost resistant crops and land area needed to provide basic nutrition during various nuclear winter scenarios for New Zealand (NZ), a temperate island nation. It used linear programming to minimize land area required for cropping while producing enough food to achieve dietary energy and protein requirements for the whole population. The potential agricultural impacts of three nuclear winter scenarios on NZ, were sourced from the literature. The optimized combinations of frost resistant crops that were found to feed the entire population were, in descending order: wheat and carrots; sugar beet; oats; onions and carrots; cabbage and barley; canola and cabbage; linseed and parsnip; rye and lupins; swede and field beans; and cauliflower. But in terms of current production levels of these frost resistant crops in NZ, there would be a 26% shortfall for the “war without a nuclear winter” scenario and a 71% shortfall for the severe nuclear winter scenario (150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere with a 61% decline in crop yields). In conclusion, at current production levels, frost resistant food crops could not feed all NZ citizens following a nuclear war. There is a need for the NZ Government to conduct a detailed pre-war analysis on how these shortfalls are best addressed. For example, by: increased pre-war production of these crops and/or post-war scalability; growing enough frost sensitive crops (i.e., in greenhouses or the warmest parts of the country); and/or ensuring continuing production of food derived from livestock fed on frost resistant grasses.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35354-7 |
| spellingShingle | Nick Wilson Ben Payne Matt Boyd Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe Scientific Reports |
| title | Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe |
| title_full | Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe |
| title_short | Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe |
| title_sort | mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35354-7 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nickwilson mathematicaloptimizationoffrostresistantcropproductiontoensurefoodsupplyduringanuclearwintercatastrophe AT benpayne mathematicaloptimizationoffrostresistantcropproductiontoensurefoodsupplyduringanuclearwintercatastrophe AT mattboyd mathematicaloptimizationoffrostresistantcropproductiontoensurefoodsupplyduringanuclearwintercatastrophe |