EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION
The paper presents approach used for the development of the forecasting system of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the region of the Sea of Azov. Due to numerous dangerous extreme events that occurred in the beginning of XXI century the issue of creation such system has become very relevant an...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Lomonosov Moscow State University
2018-06-01
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| Series: | Geography, Environment, Sustainability |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/419 |
| _version_ | 1797878434197667840 |
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| author | Sergey V. Berdnikov Liudmila V. Dashkevich Valerii V. Kulygin Igor V. Sheverdyaev I. A. Tretyakova Natalia A. Yaitskaya |
| author_facet | Sergey V. Berdnikov Liudmila V. Dashkevich Valerii V. Kulygin Igor V. Sheverdyaev I. A. Tretyakova Natalia A. Yaitskaya |
| author_sort | Sergey V. Berdnikov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper presents approach used for the development of the forecasting system of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the region of the Sea of Azov. Due to numerous dangerous extreme events that occurred in the beginning of XXI century the issue of creation such system has become very relevant and important. The forecasting system, named EX-MARE, was started developing in 2014 as a complex of mathematical models. For each type of hydro-meteorological events, the modeling component was designed. The EX-MARE system is based on a scenario approach implied the consideration a variety of possible futures taking into account the existing uncertainty. Accurate extreme events estimation requires automated monitoring systems and longterm database application. In the paper, the detail description of the system components and the data sources is examined. Three case studies about the sea surges, flash flood and ice conditions researches demonstrate the application of the EX-MARE system and the benefits of its using. Further development of the EX-MARE system assumes adding data on exposure and vulnerability to perform the risk assessment, as well as focusing on multi-hazards exploring methodology. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T02:33:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-62c6c80e76b644e696dce1a8ba0e1ddc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2071-9388 2542-1565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T02:33:34Z |
| publishDate | 2018-06-01 |
| publisher | Lomonosov Moscow State University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geography, Environment, Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-62c6c80e76b644e696dce1a8ba0e1ddc2023-03-13T07:52:32ZengLomonosov Moscow State UniversityGeography, Environment, Sustainability2071-93882542-15652018-06-01112294510.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-2-29-45314EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGIONSergey V. Berdnikov0Liudmila V. Dashkevich1Valerii V. Kulygin2Igor V. Sheverdyaev3I. A. Tretyakova4Natalia A. Yaitskaya5Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of SciencesFederal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of SciencesFederal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of SciencesFederal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of SciencesFederal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of SciencesFederal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of SciencesThe paper presents approach used for the development of the forecasting system of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the region of the Sea of Azov. Due to numerous dangerous extreme events that occurred in the beginning of XXI century the issue of creation such system has become very relevant and important. The forecasting system, named EX-MARE, was started developing in 2014 as a complex of mathematical models. For each type of hydro-meteorological events, the modeling component was designed. The EX-MARE system is based on a scenario approach implied the consideration a variety of possible futures taking into account the existing uncertainty. Accurate extreme events estimation requires automated monitoring systems and longterm database application. In the paper, the detail description of the system components and the data sources is examined. Three case studies about the sea surges, flash flood and ice conditions researches demonstrate the application of the EX-MARE system and the benefits of its using. Further development of the EX-MARE system assumes adding data on exposure and vulnerability to perform the risk assessment, as well as focusing on multi-hazards exploring methodology.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/419extreme hydro-meteorological eventsforecast systemthe sea of azovflash floodssea surgesice cover |
| spellingShingle | Sergey V. Berdnikov Liudmila V. Dashkevich Valerii V. Kulygin Igor V. Sheverdyaev I. A. Tretyakova Natalia A. Yaitskaya EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION Geography, Environment, Sustainability extreme hydro-meteorological events forecast system the sea of azov flash floods sea surges ice cover |
| title | EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION |
| title_full | EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION |
| title_fullStr | EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION |
| title_full_unstemmed | EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION |
| title_short | EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION |
| title_sort | ex mare forecasting system of natural hazards in the azov sea region |
| topic | extreme hydro-meteorological events forecast system the sea of azov flash floods sea surges ice cover |
| url | https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/419 |
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