Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures

Abstract Bioenergy plays an important role in low greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. Among various possible sources of bioenergy, dedicated bio‐crops could contribute to most of the potential. However, large scale bio‐crop deployment raises sustainability concerns. Policies to alleviate the pre...

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Main Authors: Wenchao Wu, Tomoko Hasegawa, Haruka Ohashi, Naota Hanasaki, Jingyu Liu, Tetsuya Matsui, Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui, Kiyoshi Takahashi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2019-09-01
Series:GCB Bioenergy
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12614
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author Wenchao Wu
Tomoko Hasegawa
Haruka Ohashi
Naota Hanasaki
Jingyu Liu
Tetsuya Matsui
Shinichiro Fujimori
Toshihiko Masui
Kiyoshi Takahashi
author_facet Wenchao Wu
Tomoko Hasegawa
Haruka Ohashi
Naota Hanasaki
Jingyu Liu
Tetsuya Matsui
Shinichiro Fujimori
Toshihiko Masui
Kiyoshi Takahashi
author_sort Wenchao Wu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Bioenergy plays an important role in low greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. Among various possible sources of bioenergy, dedicated bio‐crops could contribute to most of the potential. However, large scale bio‐crop deployment raises sustainability concerns. Policies to alleviate the pressure of bio‐crops on the terrestrial environment can affect bioenergy potential and production costs. Here, we estimated the maximum bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies (biodiversity and soil protection) and societal transformation measures from demand and supply side (demand‐side policy includes sustainable diet; supply‐side policy includes advanced technology and trade openness for food) by using an integrated assessment modelling framework, which consists of a general equilibrium model (Asian‐Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium) and a spatial land use allocation model (Asian‐Pacific Integrated Model/Platform for Land‐Use and Environmental Model). We found that the global advanced bioenergy potential under no policy was 245 EJ/year and that 192 EJ/year could be produced under US$5/GJ. These figures were 149 EJ/year and 110 EJ/year, respectively, under a full environmental policy. Biodiversity protection has a greater impact than soil protection due to its larger coverage and stronger implementation. Societal transformation measures effectively increase them to 186 EJ/year and 143 EJ/year, respectively, even under full environmental policies. These results imply that the large‐scale bioenergy deployment possibly needed for the climate target to limit the global mean temperature increase well below 2°C compared to the preindustrial level might face a trade‐off with environmental protection targets and that possible mitigation pathways in harmony with other environmental issues need to be explored.
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spelling doaj.art-62cdd01af1d94654bab2a49d25730ded2022-12-22T03:47:39ZengWileyGCB Bioenergy1757-16931757-17072019-09-011191041105510.1111/gcbb.12614Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measuresWenchao Wu0Tomoko Hasegawa1Haruka Ohashi2Naota Hanasaki3Jingyu Liu4Tetsuya Matsui5Shinichiro Fujimori6Toshihiko Masui7Kiyoshi Takahashi8Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba JapanCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba JapanCenter for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change Forestry and Forest Products Research InstituteForest Research and Management Organization Tsukuba JapanCenter for Global Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba JapanCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba JapanCenter for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change Forestry and Forest Products Research InstituteForest Research and Management Organization Tsukuba JapanDepartment of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering Kyoto University Kyoto JapanCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba JapanCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba JapanAbstract Bioenergy plays an important role in low greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. Among various possible sources of bioenergy, dedicated bio‐crops could contribute to most of the potential. However, large scale bio‐crop deployment raises sustainability concerns. Policies to alleviate the pressure of bio‐crops on the terrestrial environment can affect bioenergy potential and production costs. Here, we estimated the maximum bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies (biodiversity and soil protection) and societal transformation measures from demand and supply side (demand‐side policy includes sustainable diet; supply‐side policy includes advanced technology and trade openness for food) by using an integrated assessment modelling framework, which consists of a general equilibrium model (Asian‐Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium) and a spatial land use allocation model (Asian‐Pacific Integrated Model/Platform for Land‐Use and Environmental Model). We found that the global advanced bioenergy potential under no policy was 245 EJ/year and that 192 EJ/year could be produced under US$5/GJ. These figures were 149 EJ/year and 110 EJ/year, respectively, under a full environmental policy. Biodiversity protection has a greater impact than soil protection due to its larger coverage and stronger implementation. Societal transformation measures effectively increase them to 186 EJ/year and 143 EJ/year, respectively, even under full environmental policies. These results imply that the large‐scale bioenergy deployment possibly needed for the climate target to limit the global mean temperature increase well below 2°C compared to the preindustrial level might face a trade‐off with environmental protection targets and that possible mitigation pathways in harmony with other environmental issues need to be explored.https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12614biodiversity protectionbioenergy potentialdemand‐ and supply‐side policyintegrated assessmentsocietal transformationsoil protection
spellingShingle Wenchao Wu
Tomoko Hasegawa
Haruka Ohashi
Naota Hanasaki
Jingyu Liu
Tetsuya Matsui
Shinichiro Fujimori
Toshihiko Masui
Kiyoshi Takahashi
Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
GCB Bioenergy
biodiversity protection
bioenergy potential
demand‐ and supply‐side policy
integrated assessment
societal transformation
soil protection
title Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
title_full Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
title_fullStr Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
title_full_unstemmed Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
title_short Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
title_sort global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
topic biodiversity protection
bioenergy potential
demand‐ and supply‐side policy
integrated assessment
societal transformation
soil protection
url https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12614
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