A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models
Study region: São Paulo state – Brazil. Study focus: Compound events, such as droughts and heat waves, may have severe impacts on human activities. Traditionally, they are characterized considering a univariate perspective. However, this approach may not be the most adequate to characterize such haz...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821001993 |
| _version_ | 1818403892401012736 |
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| author | André S. Ballarin Gustavo L. Barros Manoel C.M. Cabrera Edson C. Wendland |
| author_facet | André S. Ballarin Gustavo L. Barros Manoel C.M. Cabrera Edson C. Wendland |
| author_sort | André S. Ballarin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: São Paulo state – Brazil. Study focus: Compound events, such as droughts and heat waves, may have severe impacts on human activities. Traditionally, they are characterized considering a univariate perspective. However, this approach may not be the most adequate to characterize such hazards as they often result from a combination of variables interacting in space and time. Alternatively, several studies adopt the multivariate frequency analysis as it allows the consideration of concurrent drivers and their dependencies. Nevertheless, few of them evaluated this methodology in a climate change context. In view of this, this study aims to compare the uni and multivariate approaches to characterize extreme drought events considering both historical and future scenarios, using the severe water crisis experienced in the southeast region of Brazil in 2014–2015 as a study case. New hydrological insights for the region: The univariate approach can substantially underestimate the risk associated with extreme events. For future scenarios, differences between the two methodologies reached 90% of the estimated return period. Significant increasing trends were found only for temperature. Both approaches indicated that drought events will be more common and intense in the future. However, the univariate framework may misspecificate the associated risks, as it not account for the expected warming condition that may trigger or exacerbate extreme drought events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:31:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-631baabf08004ce8a31d623942131d57 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:31:29Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-631baabf08004ce8a31d623942131d572022-12-21T23:09:31ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182021-12-0138100970A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation modelsAndré S. Ballarin0Gustavo L. Barros1Manoel C.M. Cabrera2Edson C. Wendland3Department of Hydraulics and Sanitary Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering (EESC), University of São Paulo (USP), CxP.359, São Carlos, São Paulo 13566-590, BrazilDepartment of Hydraulics and Sanitary Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering (EESC), University of São Paulo (USP), CxP.359, São Carlos, São Paulo 13566-590, BrazilDepartment of Exact and Technological Sciences, State University of Santa Cruz, Ilhéus, Bahia 45662-900, Brazil; Corresponding author.Department of Hydraulics and Sanitary Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering (EESC), University of São Paulo (USP), CxP.359, São Carlos, São Paulo 13566-590, BrazilStudy region: São Paulo state – Brazil. Study focus: Compound events, such as droughts and heat waves, may have severe impacts on human activities. Traditionally, they are characterized considering a univariate perspective. However, this approach may not be the most adequate to characterize such hazards as they often result from a combination of variables interacting in space and time. Alternatively, several studies adopt the multivariate frequency analysis as it allows the consideration of concurrent drivers and their dependencies. Nevertheless, few of them evaluated this methodology in a climate change context. In view of this, this study aims to compare the uni and multivariate approaches to characterize extreme drought events considering both historical and future scenarios, using the severe water crisis experienced in the southeast region of Brazil in 2014–2015 as a study case. New hydrological insights for the region: The univariate approach can substantially underestimate the risk associated with extreme events. For future scenarios, differences between the two methodologies reached 90% of the estimated return period. Significant increasing trends were found only for temperature. Both approaches indicated that drought events will be more common and intense in the future. However, the univariate framework may misspecificate the associated risks, as it not account for the expected warming condition that may trigger or exacerbate extreme drought events.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821001993Meteorological droughtsMultivariate frequency analysisGlobal warmingCompound extreme events. |
| spellingShingle | André S. Ballarin Gustavo L. Barros Manoel C.M. Cabrera Edson C. Wendland A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Meteorological droughts Multivariate frequency analysis Global warming Compound extreme events. |
| title | A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models |
| title_full | A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models |
| title_fullStr | A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models |
| title_full_unstemmed | A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models |
| title_short | A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models |
| title_sort | copula based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models |
| topic | Meteorological droughts Multivariate frequency analysis Global warming Compound extreme events. |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821001993 |
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