Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming
Extreme heat events (EHEs) have a significant impact on the social economy and human health. China is a country with a large population and diverse terrain, and it is necessary to project future extreme heat changes in the sub-regions. This study used a specially designed dataset, the Community Eart...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Advances in Climate Change Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927820300630 |
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| author | Gu-Wei ZHANG Gang ZENG Vedaste Iyakaremye Qing-Long YOU |
| author_facet | Gu-Wei ZHANG Gang ZENG Vedaste Iyakaremye Qing-Long YOU |
| author_sort | Gu-Wei ZHANG |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Extreme heat events (EHEs) have a significant impact on the social economy and human health. China is a country with a large population and diverse terrain, and it is necessary to project future extreme heat changes in the sub-regions. This study used a specially designed dataset, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations, namely CESM low-warming, to investigate the EHEs in China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. The results indicate that the regional mean warming over China will exceed the global average, about 1.63 °C and 2.24 °C in 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warmer futures. Compared to the present-day (1976–2005), the frequency and duration of the EHEs in South China are projected to increase the most among the sub-regions. For example, the frequency of EHEs in South China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming will exceed 3 and 3.5 times the present-day level. However, when global warming rises from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C, the increased impacts relative to the 1.5 °C warming level will be the lowest in South China (less than 40%), and the highest increased impacts are projected to appear in Northeast China (53%–84%) and Northwest China (53%–107%). The main reason for this situation is that compared with the 1.5 °C scenario, the upper zonal westerly in northern China weakens and the continental high pressure enhances under the 2.0 °C scenario. Therefore, limiting global warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2.0 °C is beneficial for eliminating extreme heat events, especially for Northeast China and Northwest China. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T16:08:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-636fbb0f063746b199a80d1d61133373 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-9278 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T16:08:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-636fbb0f063746b199a80d1d611333732022-12-21T18:57:50ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Advances in Climate Change Research1674-92782020-09-01113198209Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warmingGu-Wei ZHANG0Gang ZENG1Vedaste Iyakaremye2Qing-Long YOU3Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Corresponding author.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, ChinaExtreme heat events (EHEs) have a significant impact on the social economy and human health. China is a country with a large population and diverse terrain, and it is necessary to project future extreme heat changes in the sub-regions. This study used a specially designed dataset, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations, namely CESM low-warming, to investigate the EHEs in China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. The results indicate that the regional mean warming over China will exceed the global average, about 1.63 °C and 2.24 °C in 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warmer futures. Compared to the present-day (1976–2005), the frequency and duration of the EHEs in South China are projected to increase the most among the sub-regions. For example, the frequency of EHEs in South China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming will exceed 3 and 3.5 times the present-day level. However, when global warming rises from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C, the increased impacts relative to the 1.5 °C warming level will be the lowest in South China (less than 40%), and the highest increased impacts are projected to appear in Northeast China (53%–84%) and Northwest China (53%–107%). The main reason for this situation is that compared with the 1.5 °C scenario, the upper zonal westerly in northern China weakens and the continental high pressure enhances under the 2.0 °C scenario. Therefore, limiting global warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2.0 °C is beneficial for eliminating extreme heat events, especially for Northeast China and Northwest China.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927820300630ChinaRegional changesExtreme heat events1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warmingCESM low-warming |
| spellingShingle | Gu-Wei ZHANG Gang ZENG Vedaste Iyakaremye Qing-Long YOU Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming Advances in Climate Change Research China Regional changes Extreme heat events 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming CESM low-warming |
| title | Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_full | Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_fullStr | Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_short | Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_sort | regional changes in extreme heat events in china under stabilized 1 5 °c and 2 0 °c global warming |
| topic | China Regional changes Extreme heat events 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming CESM low-warming |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927820300630 |
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