Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system
We develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovat...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2019-04-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X19300392 |
| _version_ | 1818450539480875008 |
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| author | Yeong Jae Kim Charlie Wilson |
| author_facet | Yeong Jae Kim Charlie Wilson |
| author_sort | Yeong Jae Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovation), co-invention (collaboration), and technology cost reduction (diffusion). We find that diverse mixes of policy instruments stimulate collaborative innovation activity. We find that both RD&D expenditure and trade imports support knowledge generation and exchange, and that these relationships are largely robust to future uncertainty. Conversely, we find that policy durability and stability are only weakly linked to innovation outcomes, suggesting that adaptive policy responding to rapidly changing innovation environments should play an important part of the EU's energy future. Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, Econometric analysis, Scenario analysis, Energy technology innovation system |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T20:52:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6385f2be7ec344ebb94b0075e305190e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T20:52:55Z |
| publishDate | 2019-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj.art-6385f2be7ec344ebb94b0075e305190e2022-12-21T22:47:45ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2019-04-0124279299Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation systemYeong Jae Kim0Charlie Wilson1RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Via Bergognone 34, 20144, Milano, Italy; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, UK; Corresponding author. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Via Bergognone 34, 20144, Milano, Italy.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, UK; School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, AustriaWe develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovation), co-invention (collaboration), and technology cost reduction (diffusion). We find that diverse mixes of policy instruments stimulate collaborative innovation activity. We find that both RD&D expenditure and trade imports support knowledge generation and exchange, and that these relationships are largely robust to future uncertainty. Conversely, we find that policy durability and stability are only weakly linked to innovation outcomes, suggesting that adaptive policy responding to rapidly changing innovation environments should play an important part of the EU's energy future. Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, Econometric analysis, Scenario analysis, Energy technology innovation systemhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X19300392 |
| spellingShingle | Yeong Jae Kim Charlie Wilson Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system Energy Strategy Reviews |
| title | Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system |
| title_full | Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system |
| title_fullStr | Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system |
| title_short | Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system |
| title_sort | analysing future change in the eu s energy innovation system |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X19300392 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yeongjaekim analysingfuturechangeintheeusenergyinnovationsystem AT charliewilson analysingfuturechangeintheeusenergyinnovationsystem |