Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease.
The maintenance of disease-free status from Foot-and-Mouth Disease is of significant socio-economic importance to countries such as the UK. The imposition of bans on the movement of susceptible livestock following the discovery of an outbreak is deemed necessary to prevent the spread of what is a hi...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2009-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2674954?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818139373400489984 |
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| author | David Schley Simon Gubbins David J Paton |
| author_facet | David Schley Simon Gubbins David J Paton |
| author_sort | David Schley |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The maintenance of disease-free status from Foot-and-Mouth Disease is of significant socio-economic importance to countries such as the UK. The imposition of bans on the movement of susceptible livestock following the discovery of an outbreak is deemed necessary to prevent the spread of what is a highly contagious disease, but has a significant economic impact on the agricultural community in itself. Here we consider the risk of applying movement restrictions only in localised zones around outbreaks in order to help evaluate how quickly nation-wide restrictions could be lifted after notification. We show, with reference to the 2001 and 2007 UK outbreaks, that it would be practical to implement such a policy provided the basic reproduction ratio of known infected premises can be estimated. It is ultimately up to policy makers and stakeholders to determine the acceptable level of risk, involving a cost benefit analysis of the potential outcomes, but quantifying the risk of spread from different sized zones is a prerequisite for this. The approach outlined is relevant to the determination of control zones and vaccination policies and has the potential to be applied to future outbreaks of other diseases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T10:27:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-63f51607ebc44e39824337b50dd9ed8d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T10:27:04Z |
| publishDate | 2009-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-63f51607ebc44e39824337b50dd9ed8d2022-12-22T01:11:07ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032009-01-0145e548110.1371/journal.pone.0005481Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease.David SchleySimon GubbinsDavid J PatonThe maintenance of disease-free status from Foot-and-Mouth Disease is of significant socio-economic importance to countries such as the UK. The imposition of bans on the movement of susceptible livestock following the discovery of an outbreak is deemed necessary to prevent the spread of what is a highly contagious disease, but has a significant economic impact on the agricultural community in itself. Here we consider the risk of applying movement restrictions only in localised zones around outbreaks in order to help evaluate how quickly nation-wide restrictions could be lifted after notification. We show, with reference to the 2001 and 2007 UK outbreaks, that it would be practical to implement such a policy provided the basic reproduction ratio of known infected premises can be estimated. It is ultimately up to policy makers and stakeholders to determine the acceptable level of risk, involving a cost benefit analysis of the potential outcomes, but quantifying the risk of spread from different sized zones is a prerequisite for this. The approach outlined is relevant to the determination of control zones and vaccination policies and has the potential to be applied to future outbreaks of other diseases.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2674954?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | David Schley Simon Gubbins David J Paton Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease. PLoS ONE |
| title | Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease. |
| title_full | Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease. |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease. |
| title_short | Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease. |
| title_sort | quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot and mouth disease |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2674954?pdf=render |
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