Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants
Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrati...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-07-01
|
| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/8201/2015/acp-15-8201-2015.pdf |
| _version_ | 1798044181279539200 |
|---|---|
| author | L. H. Baker W. J. Collins D. J. L. Olivié R. Cherian Ø. Hodnebrog G. Myhre J. Quaas |
| author_facet | L. H. Baker W. J. Collins D. J. L. Olivié R. Cherian Ø. Hodnebrog G. Myhre J. Quaas |
| author_sort | L. H. Baker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and
their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a
local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop
yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations;
however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less
straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized,
extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of
individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound
on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies.
<br><br>
We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic
emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon
(OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>). We perform climate integrations with four
fully coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine
the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based
anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species.
<br><br>
We find that the SO<sub>2</sub> emissions reductions lead to the strongest response,
with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the
Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding
increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are
driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the
hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes.
The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is
some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to
these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to
natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud
changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the
ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC
mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate
response. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:59:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-640bf4bf6d754f5f81df3688bd44ccd5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:59:22Z |
| publishDate | 2015-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-640bf4bf6d754f5f81df3688bd44ccd52022-12-22T03:58:15ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242015-07-0115148201821610.5194/acp-15-8201-2015Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutantsL. H. Baker0W. J. Collins1D. J. L. Olivié2R. Cherian3Ø. Hodnebrog4G. Myhre5J. Quaas6Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, P.O. Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, UKDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, P.O. Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, UKNorwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NorwayInstitute for Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, GermanyCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, NorwayCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, NorwayInstitute for Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, GermanyPolicies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. <br><br> We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. <br><br> We find that the SO<sub>2</sub> emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/8201/2015/acp-15-8201-2015.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. H. Baker W. J. Collins D. J. L. Olivié R. Cherian Ø. Hodnebrog G. Myhre J. Quaas Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants |
| title_full | Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants |
| title_fullStr | Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants |
| title_short | Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants |
| title_sort | climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short lived climate pollutants |
| url | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/8201/2015/acp-15-8201-2015.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lhbaker climateresponsestoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedclimatepollutants AT wjcollins climateresponsestoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedclimatepollutants AT djlolivie climateresponsestoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedclimatepollutants AT rcherian climateresponsestoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedclimatepollutants AT oslashhodnebrog climateresponsestoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedclimatepollutants AT gmyhre climateresponsestoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedclimatepollutants AT jquaas climateresponsestoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedclimatepollutants |