Evaluating the potential for modal shift in last-mile cargo distribution through stochastic programming
This paper presents a multistage stochastic programming model used to evaluate the potential for obtaining a modal shift from road to sea in the cargo distribution between a regional port and the surrounding customer regions, each with a given (and uncertain) future demand for cargo. We use the port...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | Maritime Transport Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666822X20300022 |
| Summary: | This paper presents a multistage stochastic programming model used to evaluate the potential for obtaining a modal shift from road to sea in the cargo distribution between a regional port and the surrounding customer regions, each with a given (and uncertain) future demand for cargo. We use the port of Bergen in Norway as a case study as it has recently been decided to relocate the main cargo terminal from the city center in 2025. Analyses with the model indicate that implementing a multimodal distribution network with small electric vessels 10 years ahead will lead to slight cost reductions compared with using only trucks and reduce the road transportation need by 23%. A modal shift can be initiated at an earlier stage and reduce the road transportation further if modal shift targets are specified, without resulting in significant cost increases. What-if analyses have been conducted and indicate robustness in the obtained results. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 2666-822X |