Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK
Abstract Some social settings such as households and workplaces, have been identified as high risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Identifying and quantifying the importance of these settings is critical for designing interventions. A tightly-knit religious community in the UK experienced a very large...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12517-6 |
| _version_ | 1811250967219273728 |
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| author | William Waites Carl A. B. Pearson Katherine M. Gaskell Thomas House Lorenzo Pellis Marina Johnson Victoria Gould Adam Hunt Neil R. H. Stone Ben Kasstan Tracey Chantler Sham Lal Chrissy H. Roberts David Goldblatt CMMID COVID-19 Working Group Michael Marks Rosalind M. Eggo |
| author_facet | William Waites Carl A. B. Pearson Katherine M. Gaskell Thomas House Lorenzo Pellis Marina Johnson Victoria Gould Adam Hunt Neil R. H. Stone Ben Kasstan Tracey Chantler Sham Lal Chrissy H. Roberts David Goldblatt CMMID COVID-19 Working Group Michael Marks Rosalind M. Eggo |
| author_sort | William Waites |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Some social settings such as households and workplaces, have been identified as high risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Identifying and quantifying the importance of these settings is critical for designing interventions. A tightly-knit religious community in the UK experienced a very large COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, reaching 64.3% seroprevalence within 10 months, and we surveyed this community both for serological status and individual-level attendance at particular settings. Using these data, and a network model of people and places represented as a stochastic graph rewriting system, we estimated the relative contribution of transmission in households, schools and religious institutions to the epidemic, and the relative risk of infection in each of these settings. All congregate settings were important for transmission, with some such as primary schools and places of worship having a higher share of transmission than others. We found that the model needed a higher general-community transmission rate for women (3.3-fold), and lower susceptibility to infection in children to recreate the observed serological data. The precise share of transmission in each place was related to assumptions about the internal structure of those places. Identification of key settings of transmission can allow public health interventions to be targeted at these locations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T16:12:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-649b2ca540fe443099a9fd9953bdc191 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T16:12:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-649b2ca540fe443099a9fd9953bdc1912022-12-22T03:25:51ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-05-0112111210.1038/s41598-022-12517-6Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UKWilliam Waites0Carl A. B. Pearson1Katherine M. Gaskell2Thomas House3Lorenzo Pellis4Marina Johnson5Victoria Gould6Adam Hunt7Neil R. H. Stone8Ben Kasstan9Tracey Chantler10Sham Lal11Chrissy H. Roberts12David Goldblatt13CMMID COVID-19 Working GroupMichael Marks14Rosalind M. Eggo15Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineDepartment of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineSchool of Mathematics, University of ManchesterSchool of Mathematics, University of ManchesterGreat Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College LondonDepartment of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineGreat Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College LondonDepartment of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineCentre for Health, Law and Society, University of Bristol Law SchoolDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineDepartment of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineDepartment of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineGreat Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College LondonDepartment of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineAbstract Some social settings such as households and workplaces, have been identified as high risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Identifying and quantifying the importance of these settings is critical for designing interventions. A tightly-knit religious community in the UK experienced a very large COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, reaching 64.3% seroprevalence within 10 months, and we surveyed this community both for serological status and individual-level attendance at particular settings. Using these data, and a network model of people and places represented as a stochastic graph rewriting system, we estimated the relative contribution of transmission in households, schools and religious institutions to the epidemic, and the relative risk of infection in each of these settings. All congregate settings were important for transmission, with some such as primary schools and places of worship having a higher share of transmission than others. We found that the model needed a higher general-community transmission rate for women (3.3-fold), and lower susceptibility to infection in children to recreate the observed serological data. The precise share of transmission in each place was related to assumptions about the internal structure of those places. Identification of key settings of transmission can allow public health interventions to be targeted at these locations.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12517-6 |
| spellingShingle | William Waites Carl A. B. Pearson Katherine M. Gaskell Thomas House Lorenzo Pellis Marina Johnson Victoria Gould Adam Hunt Neil R. H. Stone Ben Kasstan Tracey Chantler Sham Lal Chrissy H. Roberts David Goldblatt CMMID COVID-19 Working Group Michael Marks Rosalind M. Eggo Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK Scientific Reports |
| title | Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK |
| title_full | Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK |
| title_fullStr | Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK |
| title_short | Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK |
| title_sort | transmission dynamics of sars cov 2 in a strictly orthodox jewish community in the uk |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12517-6 |
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