Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections
With increased interest in climate forecasts and projections, it is important to understand more about their sources and levels of skill. A starting point here is to describe the nature of the skill associated with forecasts and projections. Climate forecasts and projections typically both include t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/10/6/83 |
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| author | James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Marina Baldissera Pacchetti Amanda S. Black Christopher C. Chapman Suraje Dessai Damien B. Irving Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Bernadette M. Sloyan Carly R. Tozer |
| author_facet | James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Marina Baldissera Pacchetti Amanda S. Black Christopher C. Chapman Suraje Dessai Damien B. Irving Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Bernadette M. Sloyan Carly R. Tozer |
| author_sort | James S. Risbey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With increased interest in climate forecasts and projections, it is important to understand more about their sources and levels of skill. A starting point here is to describe the nature of the skill associated with forecasts and projections. Climate forecasts and projections typically both include time varying forcing of the climate, but only forecasts have initial conditions set close to the observed climate state. Climate forecasts therefore derive skill from both initial conditions and from forcing. The character of the initial condition skill and forcing skill is different. Skill from initial conditions results in a narrowing of expectations relative to a climatological distribution and points toward a more favoured part of the distribution. Forcing skill could result from a shift in the preferred parts of the climatological distribution in response to forcing, or it could result from a shift in the entire distribution, or both. Assessments of forcing skill require time averages of the target variable that are long enough so that the contributions from internal variations are small compared to the forced response. The assessment of skill of climate forecasts and projections is inherently partial because of the small number of repeated trials possible on typical climate time scales but is nonetheless the only direct measure of their performance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:06:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-64f0c81c3421464b9b861d617ea1d6b6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-1154 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:06:15Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-64f0c81c3421464b9b861d617ea1d6b62023-11-23T16:07:59ZengMDPI AGClimate2225-11542022-06-011068310.3390/cli10060083Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and ProjectionsJames S. Risbey0Dougal T. Squire1Marina Baldissera Pacchetti2Amanda S. Black3Christopher C. Chapman4Suraje Dessai5Damien B. Irving6Richard J. Matear7Didier P. Monselesan8Thomas S. Moore9Doug Richardson10Bernadette M. Sloyan11Carly R. Tozer12CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UKDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USACSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UKCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart 7000, AustraliaWith increased interest in climate forecasts and projections, it is important to understand more about their sources and levels of skill. A starting point here is to describe the nature of the skill associated with forecasts and projections. Climate forecasts and projections typically both include time varying forcing of the climate, but only forecasts have initial conditions set close to the observed climate state. Climate forecasts therefore derive skill from both initial conditions and from forcing. The character of the initial condition skill and forcing skill is different. Skill from initial conditions results in a narrowing of expectations relative to a climatological distribution and points toward a more favoured part of the distribution. Forcing skill could result from a shift in the preferred parts of the climatological distribution in response to forcing, or it could result from a shift in the entire distribution, or both. Assessments of forcing skill require time averages of the target variable that are long enough so that the contributions from internal variations are small compared to the forced response. The assessment of skill of climate forecasts and projections is inherently partial because of the small number of repeated trials possible on typical climate time scales but is nonetheless the only direct measure of their performance.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/10/6/83climate forecastclimate projectionskillverification |
| spellingShingle | James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Marina Baldissera Pacchetti Amanda S. Black Christopher C. Chapman Suraje Dessai Damien B. Irving Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Bernadette M. Sloyan Carly R. Tozer Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections Climate climate forecast climate projection skill verification |
| title | Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections |
| title_full | Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections |
| title_fullStr | Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections |
| title_short | Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections |
| title_sort | common issues in verification of climate forecasts and projections |
| topic | climate forecast climate projection skill verification |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/10/6/83 |
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