Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in Egypt
Purpose – This paper aims to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly residential natural gas consumption, in Egypt, taken into consideration the volatile multiple seasonal nature of the gas series. This matter helps in both minimizing the cost of energy and maintaining the reliability of the Egyptia...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Emerald Publishing
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JHASS-03-2020-0046/full/pdf?title=forecasting-residential-natural-gas-consumption-in-egypt |
| _version_ | 1797995172088250368 |
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| author | Mohamed Ali Ismail Eman Mahmoud Abd El-Metaal |
| author_facet | Mohamed Ali Ismail Eman Mahmoud Abd El-Metaal |
| author_sort | Mohamed Ali Ismail |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose – This paper aims to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly residential natural gas consumption, in Egypt, taken into consideration the volatile multiple seasonal nature of the gas series. This matter helps in both minimizing the cost of energy and maintaining the reliability of the Egyptian power system as well. Design/methodology/approach – Double seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly Egyptian gas consumption series. This model captures both daily and weekly seasonal patterns apparent in the series as well as the volatility of the series. Findings – Using the mean absolute percentage error to check the forecasting accuracy of the model, it is proved that the produced outcomes are accurate. Therefore, the proposed model could be recommended for forecasting the Egyptian natural gas consumption. Originality/value – The contribution of this research lies in the ingenuity of using time series models that accommodate both daily and weekly seasonal patterns, which have not been taken into consideration before, in addition to the series volatility to forecast hourly consumption of natural gas in Egypt. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:57:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-64fed28641534962a68ae1ffaafd9130 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2632-279X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:57:13Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-64fed28641534962a68ae1ffaafd91302022-12-22T04:30:32ZengEmerald PublishingJournal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences2632-279X2020-07-012429730810.1108/JHASS-03-2020-0046647898Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in EgyptMohamed Ali Ismail0Eman Mahmoud Abd El-Metaal1Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, EgyptDepartment of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, EgyptPurpose – This paper aims to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly residential natural gas consumption, in Egypt, taken into consideration the volatile multiple seasonal nature of the gas series. This matter helps in both minimizing the cost of energy and maintaining the reliability of the Egyptian power system as well. Design/methodology/approach – Double seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly Egyptian gas consumption series. This model captures both daily and weekly seasonal patterns apparent in the series as well as the volatility of the series. Findings – Using the mean absolute percentage error to check the forecasting accuracy of the model, it is proved that the produced outcomes are accurate. Therefore, the proposed model could be recommended for forecasting the Egyptian natural gas consumption. Originality/value – The contribution of this research lies in the ingenuity of using time series models that accommodate both daily and weekly seasonal patterns, which have not been taken into consideration before, in addition to the series volatility to forecast hourly consumption of natural gas in Egypt.https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JHASS-03-2020-0046/full/pdf?title=forecasting-residential-natural-gas-consumption-in-egyptegyptarimagarchtime series modelsmultiple seasonality patternpost-sample forecasts |
| spellingShingle | Mohamed Ali Ismail Eman Mahmoud Abd El-Metaal Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in Egypt Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences egypt arima garch time series models multiple seasonality pattern post-sample forecasts |
| title | Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in Egypt |
| title_full | Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in Egypt |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in Egypt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in Egypt |
| title_short | Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in Egypt |
| title_sort | forecasting residential natural gas consumption in egypt |
| topic | egypt arima garch time series models multiple seasonality pattern post-sample forecasts |
| url | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JHASS-03-2020-0046/full/pdf?title=forecasting-residential-natural-gas-consumption-in-egypt |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mohamedaliismail forecastingresidentialnaturalgasconsumptioninegypt AT emanmahmoudabdelmetaal forecastingresidentialnaturalgasconsumptioninegypt |