On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemic
This study investigates the relationship between socio-economic determinants pre-dating the pandemic and the reported number of cases, deaths, and the ratio of deaths/cases in 199 countries/regions during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is performed by means of machine learni...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2021-05-01
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| Series: | AIMS Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/publichealth.2021034?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1818643680712458240 |
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| author | Kathleen Lois Foster Alessandro Maria Selvitella |
| author_facet | Kathleen Lois Foster Alessandro Maria Selvitella |
| author_sort | Kathleen Lois Foster |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the relationship between socio-economic determinants pre-dating the pandemic and the reported number of cases, deaths, and the ratio of deaths/cases in 199 countries/regions during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is performed by means of machine learning methods. It involves a portfolio/ensemble of 32 interpretable models and considers the case in which the outcome variables (number of cases, deaths, and their ratio) are independent and the case in which their dependence is weighted based on geographical proximity. We build two measures of variable importance, the Absolute Importance Index (AII) and the Signed Importance Index (SII) whose roles are to identify the most contributing socio-economic factors to the variability of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results suggest that, together with the established influence on cases and deaths of the level of mobility, the specific features of the health care system (smart/poor allocation of resources), the economy of a country (equity/non-equity), and the society (religious/not religious or community-based vs not) might contribute to the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths heterogeneously across countries. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T00:02:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-64ffcf546b9248f3b9a8ff3999e16bc2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2327-8994 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T00:02:48Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | AIMS Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-64ffcf546b9248f3b9a8ff3999e16bc22022-12-21T22:11:02ZengAIMS PressAIMS Public Health2327-89942021-05-018343945510.3934/publichealth.2021034On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemicKathleen Lois Foster0Alessandro Maria Selvitella 11. Department of Biology, Ball State University, 2111 W. Riverside Ave., Muncie, IN 47306, USA2. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Purdue University Fort Wayne, 2101 E. Coliseum Blvd., Fort Wayne, IN 46805, USAThis study investigates the relationship between socio-economic determinants pre-dating the pandemic and the reported number of cases, deaths, and the ratio of deaths/cases in 199 countries/regions during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is performed by means of machine learning methods. It involves a portfolio/ensemble of 32 interpretable models and considers the case in which the outcome variables (number of cases, deaths, and their ratio) are independent and the case in which their dependence is weighted based on geographical proximity. We build two measures of variable importance, the Absolute Importance Index (AII) and the Signed Importance Index (SII) whose roles are to identify the most contributing socio-economic factors to the variability of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results suggest that, together with the established influence on cases and deaths of the level of mobility, the specific features of the health care system (smart/poor allocation of resources), the economy of a country (equity/non-equity), and the society (religious/not religious or community-based vs not) might contribute to the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths heterogeneously across countries.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/publichealth.2021034?viewType=HTMLcovid-19socio-economic determinantsspatial effectscases and deathsearly pandemicensemble modelsvariable selection |
| spellingShingle | Kathleen Lois Foster Alessandro Maria Selvitella On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemic AIMS Public Health covid-19 socio-economic determinants spatial effects cases and deaths early pandemic ensemble models variable selection |
| title | On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemic |
| title_full | On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemic |
| title_fullStr | On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemic |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemic |
| title_short | On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemic |
| title_sort | on the relationship between covid 19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio economic status predating the pandemic |
| topic | covid-19 socio-economic determinants spatial effects cases and deaths early pandemic ensemble models variable selection |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/publichealth.2021034?viewType=HTML |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kathleenloisfoster ontherelationshipbetweencovid19reportedfatalitiesearlyinthepandemicandnationalsocioeconomicstatuspredatingthepandemic AT alessandromariaselvitella ontherelationshipbetweencovid19reportedfatalitiesearlyinthepandemicandnationalsocioeconomicstatuspredatingthepandemic |