Detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities.
Although there are some techniques for dealing with sparse and concentrated discrete data, standard time-series analyses appear ill-suited to understanding the temporal patterns of terrorist attacks due to the sparsity of the events. This article addresses these issues by proposing a novel technique...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291514 |
| _version_ | 1797679358641438720 |
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| author | Rafael Prieto-Curiel Olivier Walther Ewan Davies |
| author_facet | Rafael Prieto-Curiel Olivier Walther Ewan Davies |
| author_sort | Rafael Prieto-Curiel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Although there are some techniques for dealing with sparse and concentrated discrete data, standard time-series analyses appear ill-suited to understanding the temporal patterns of terrorist attacks due to the sparsity of the events. This article addresses these issues by proposing a novel technique for analysing low-frequency temporal events, such as terrorism, based on their cumulative curve and corresponding gradients. Using an iterative algorithm based on a piecewise linear function, our technique detects trends and shocks observed in the events associated with terrorist groups that would not necessarily be visible using other methods. The analysis leverages disaggregated data on political violence from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) to analyse the intensity of the two most violent terrorist organisations in Africa: Boko Haram (including its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province), and Al-Shabaab. Our method detects moments when terrorist groups change their capabilities to conduct daily attacks and, by taking into account the directionality of attacks, highlights major changes in the government's strategies. Results suggest that security policies have largely failed to reduce both groups' forces and restore stability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:13:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6538c0192fd54f67b04d5a3de0cd9f68 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:13:27Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-6538c0192fd54f67b04d5a3de0cd9f682023-09-21T05:32:25ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01189e029151410.1371/journal.pone.0291514Detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities.Rafael Prieto-CurielOlivier WaltherEwan DaviesAlthough there are some techniques for dealing with sparse and concentrated discrete data, standard time-series analyses appear ill-suited to understanding the temporal patterns of terrorist attacks due to the sparsity of the events. This article addresses these issues by proposing a novel technique for analysing low-frequency temporal events, such as terrorism, based on their cumulative curve and corresponding gradients. Using an iterative algorithm based on a piecewise linear function, our technique detects trends and shocks observed in the events associated with terrorist groups that would not necessarily be visible using other methods. The analysis leverages disaggregated data on political violence from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) to analyse the intensity of the two most violent terrorist organisations in Africa: Boko Haram (including its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province), and Al-Shabaab. Our method detects moments when terrorist groups change their capabilities to conduct daily attacks and, by taking into account the directionality of attacks, highlights major changes in the government's strategies. Results suggest that security policies have largely failed to reduce both groups' forces and restore stability.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291514 |
| spellingShingle | Rafael Prieto-Curiel Olivier Walther Ewan Davies Detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities. PLoS ONE |
| title | Detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities. |
| title_full | Detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities. |
| title_fullStr | Detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities. |
| title_short | Detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities. |
| title_sort | detecting trends and shocks in terrorist activities |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291514 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rafaelprietocuriel detectingtrendsandshocksinterroristactivities AT olivierwalther detectingtrendsandshocksinterroristactivities AT ewandavies detectingtrendsandshocksinterroristactivities |