An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Abstract Intense grazing may lead to grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but it is difficult to predict where this will occur and to quantify it. Based on a process-based ecosystem model, we define a productivity-based stocking rate threshold that induces extreme grassland degradat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42099-4 |
| _version_ | 1827710255443738624 |
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| author | Qiuan Zhu Huai Chen Changhui Peng Jinxun Liu Shilong Piao Jin-Sheng He Shiping Wang Xinquan Zhao Jiang Zhang Xiuqin Fang Jiaxin Jin Qi-En Yang Liliang Ren Yanfen Wang |
| author_facet | Qiuan Zhu Huai Chen Changhui Peng Jinxun Liu Shilong Piao Jin-Sheng He Shiping Wang Xinquan Zhao Jiang Zhang Xiuqin Fang Jiaxin Jin Qi-En Yang Liliang Ren Yanfen Wang |
| author_sort | Qiuan Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Intense grazing may lead to grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but it is difficult to predict where this will occur and to quantify it. Based on a process-based ecosystem model, we define a productivity-based stocking rate threshold that induces extreme grassland degradation to assess whether and where the current grazing activity in the region is sustainable. We find that the current stocking rate is below the threshold in ~80% of grassland areas, but in 55% of these grasslands the stocking rate exceeds half the threshold. According to our model projections, positive effects of climate change including elevated CO2 can partly offset negative effects of grazing across nearly 70% of grasslands on the Plateau, but only in areas below the stocking rate threshold. Our analysis suggests that stocking rate that does not exceed 60% (within 50% to 70%) of the threshold may balance human demands with grassland protection in the face of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:35:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6543cfa886be47058e5024ac66a47a18 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:35:29Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-6543cfa886be47058e5024ac66a47a182023-11-20T09:51:53ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-10-0114111310.1038/s41467-023-42099-4An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan PlateauQiuan Zhu0Huai Chen1Changhui Peng2Jinxun Liu3Shilong Piao4Jin-Sheng He5Shiping Wang6Xinquan Zhao7Jiang Zhang8Xiuqin Fang9Jiaxin Jin10Qi-En Yang11Liliang Ren12Yanfen Wang13College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai UniversityChengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of ScienceDepartment of Biology Science, Institute of Environmrnt Sciences, University of Quebec at MontrealU.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science CenterState Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesInstitute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityState Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of SciencesCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai UniversityKey Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of SciencesThe National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai UniversityUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS)Abstract Intense grazing may lead to grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but it is difficult to predict where this will occur and to quantify it. Based on a process-based ecosystem model, we define a productivity-based stocking rate threshold that induces extreme grassland degradation to assess whether and where the current grazing activity in the region is sustainable. We find that the current stocking rate is below the threshold in ~80% of grassland areas, but in 55% of these grasslands the stocking rate exceeds half the threshold. According to our model projections, positive effects of climate change including elevated CO2 can partly offset negative effects of grazing across nearly 70% of grasslands on the Plateau, but only in areas below the stocking rate threshold. Our analysis suggests that stocking rate that does not exceed 60% (within 50% to 70%) of the threshold may balance human demands with grassland protection in the face of climate change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42099-4 |
| spellingShingle | Qiuan Zhu Huai Chen Changhui Peng Jinxun Liu Shilong Piao Jin-Sheng He Shiping Wang Xinquan Zhao Jiang Zhang Xiuqin Fang Jiaxin Jin Qi-En Yang Liliang Ren Yanfen Wang An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Nature Communications |
| title | An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
| title_full | An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
| title_fullStr | An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
| title_full_unstemmed | An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
| title_short | An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
| title_sort | early warning signal for grassland degradation on the qinghai tibetan plateau |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42099-4 |
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