Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones
ABSTRACT: This review of new understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) is based on presentations at the International Top-level Forum on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones in Haikou, China. The major topics are the sudden changes in tracks, rapid changes in structure and inte...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2013-02-01
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| Series: | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603218300638 |
| _version_ | 1818368759292755968 |
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| author | Russell L. Elsberry Lianshou Chen Jim Davidson Robert Rogers Yuqing Wang Liguang Wu |
| author_facet | Russell L. Elsberry Lianshou Chen Jim Davidson Robert Rogers Yuqing Wang Liguang Wu |
| author_sort | Russell L. Elsberry |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT: This review of new understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) is based on presentations at the International Top-level Forum on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones in Haikou, China. The major topics are the sudden changes in tracks, rapid changes in structure and intensity, rapid changes in rainfall, and advances in forecasting and forecaster requirements. Although improved track forecast guidance has been achieved with the Australian ACCESS-TC model and in track forecasts to 120h by the China Meteorological Administration, there is a continuing need for better understanding and improved track forecast guidance. Advances in understanding of processes related to rapid intensification (RI), secondary eyewall formation, mechanisms controlling inner-core structure and size changes, and structure and intensity changes at landfall have been achieved, but progress in prediction of rapid changes in structure and intensity has been slow. Taking into account complex interactions involved in TC-related rainfall, a prioritized list of physical processes that govern rainfall from landfalling TCs in China has been developed. While forecaster participants were generally encouraged by the progress being made, they expressed a strong desire for a transition of that new knowledge to timely and reliable forecast guidance products. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T23:13:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6563c7c0389e4046afd1b163f0effb2c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-6032 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T23:13:03Z |
| publishDate | 2013-02-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-6563c7c0389e4046afd1b163f0effb2c2022-12-21T23:28:01ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2225-60322013-02-01211324Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical CyclonesRussell L. Elsberry0Lianshou Chen1Jim Davidson2Robert Rogers3Yuqing Wang4Liguang Wu5Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA; Corresponding author address: Professor Russell L. Elsberry, Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA.China Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, ChinaBureau of Meteorology, Brisbane, AustraliaHurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida, USAInternational Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USANanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaABSTRACT: This review of new understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) is based on presentations at the International Top-level Forum on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones in Haikou, China. The major topics are the sudden changes in tracks, rapid changes in structure and intensity, rapid changes in rainfall, and advances in forecasting and forecaster requirements. Although improved track forecast guidance has been achieved with the Australian ACCESS-TC model and in track forecasts to 120h by the China Meteorological Administration, there is a continuing need for better understanding and improved track forecast guidance. Advances in understanding of processes related to rapid intensification (RI), secondary eyewall formation, mechanisms controlling inner-core structure and size changes, and structure and intensity changes at landfall have been achieved, but progress in prediction of rapid changes in structure and intensity has been slow. Taking into account complex interactions involved in TC-related rainfall, a prioritized list of physical processes that govern rainfall from landfalling TCs in China has been developed. While forecaster participants were generally encouraged by the progress being made, they expressed a strong desire for a transition of that new knowledge to timely and reliable forecast guidance products.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603218300638 |
| spellingShingle | Russell L. Elsberry Lianshou Chen Jim Davidson Robert Rogers Yuqing Wang Liguang Wu Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| title | Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_full | Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_fullStr | Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_short | Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones |
| title_sort | advances in understanding and forecasting rapidly changing phenomena in tropical cyclones |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603218300638 |
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