A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort study
BackgroundElderly patients with breast cancer are highly heterogeneous, and tumor load and comorbidities affect patient prognosis. Prediction models can help clinicians to implement tailored treatment plans for elderly patients with breast cancer. This study aimed to establish a prediction model for...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1189551/full |
| _version_ | 1827891159541743616 |
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| author | Ying Zhong Yidong Zhou Yali Xu Zhe Wang Feng Mao Songjie Shen Yan Lin Qiang Sun Kai Sun |
| author_facet | Ying Zhong Yidong Zhou Yali Xu Zhe Wang Feng Mao Songjie Shen Yan Lin Qiang Sun Kai Sun |
| author_sort | Ying Zhong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundElderly patients with breast cancer are highly heterogeneous, and tumor load and comorbidities affect patient prognosis. Prediction models can help clinicians to implement tailored treatment plans for elderly patients with breast cancer. This study aimed to establish a prediction model for breast cancer, including comorbidities and tumor characteristics, in elderly patients with breast cancer.MethodsAll patients were ≥65 years old and admitted to the Peking Union Medical College Hospital. The clinical and pathological characteristics, recurrence, and death were observed. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier curve and a prediction model was constructed using Cox proportional hazards model regression. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms for predicting OS were tested using concordance (C)-statistics and calibration plots. Clinical utility was demonstrated using decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsBased on 2,231 patients, the 5- and 10-year OS was 91.3% and 78.4%, respectively. We constructed an OS prediction nomogram for elderly patients with early breast cancer (PEEBC). The C-index for OS in PEEBC in the training and validation cohorts was 0.798 and 0.793, respectively. Calibration of the nomogram revealed a good predictive capability, as indicated by the calibration plot. DCA demonstrated that our model is clinically useful.ConclusionThe nomogram accurately predicted the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year OS in elderly patients with early breast cancer. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:20:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-65a28e182acd475e8c1ecd0534739fd3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:20:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-65a28e182acd475e8c1ecd0534739fd32023-07-28T18:06:24ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2023-07-011310.3389/fonc.2023.11895511189551A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort studyYing Zhong0Yidong Zhou1Yali Xu2Zhe Wang3Feng Mao4Songjie Shen5Yan Lin6Qiang Sun7Kai Sun8Department of Breast Disease, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Breast Disease, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Breast Disease, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Breast Disease, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Breast Disease, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Breast Disease, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Breast Disease, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Breast Disease, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, ChinaMedical Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaBackgroundElderly patients with breast cancer are highly heterogeneous, and tumor load and comorbidities affect patient prognosis. Prediction models can help clinicians to implement tailored treatment plans for elderly patients with breast cancer. This study aimed to establish a prediction model for breast cancer, including comorbidities and tumor characteristics, in elderly patients with breast cancer.MethodsAll patients were ≥65 years old and admitted to the Peking Union Medical College Hospital. The clinical and pathological characteristics, recurrence, and death were observed. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier curve and a prediction model was constructed using Cox proportional hazards model regression. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms for predicting OS were tested using concordance (C)-statistics and calibration plots. Clinical utility was demonstrated using decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsBased on 2,231 patients, the 5- and 10-year OS was 91.3% and 78.4%, respectively. We constructed an OS prediction nomogram for elderly patients with early breast cancer (PEEBC). The C-index for OS in PEEBC in the training and validation cohorts was 0.798 and 0.793, respectively. Calibration of the nomogram revealed a good predictive capability, as indicated by the calibration plot. DCA demonstrated that our model is clinically useful.ConclusionThe nomogram accurately predicted the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year OS in elderly patients with early breast cancer.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1189551/fullbreast cancerelderly patientspredictive nomogramoverall survivalcomorbidities |
| spellingShingle | Ying Zhong Yidong Zhou Yali Xu Zhe Wang Feng Mao Songjie Shen Yan Lin Qiang Sun Kai Sun A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort study Frontiers in Oncology breast cancer elderly patients predictive nomogram overall survival comorbidities |
| title | A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort study |
| title_full | A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort study |
| title_fullStr | A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort study |
| title_short | A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort study |
| title_sort | nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer a consecutive cohort study |
| topic | breast cancer elderly patients predictive nomogram overall survival comorbidities |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1189551/full |
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