International conflict and strategic games
The pervasiveness of international conflict makes of it one of the main topics of discussion among IR scholars. The discipline has extensively attempted to model the conditions and settings under which armed conflict emerges, at sometimes resorting to formal models as tools to generate hypotheses an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Associação Brasileira de Relações Internacionais
2019-05-01
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| Series: | Carta Internacional |
| Online Access: | https://www.cartainternacional.abri.org.br/Carta/article/view/865 |
| _version_ | 1818890266688356352 |
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| author | Enzo Lenine Lima |
| author_facet | Enzo Lenine Lima |
| author_sort | Enzo Lenine Lima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The pervasiveness of international conflict makes of it one of the main topics of discussion
among IR scholars. The discipline has extensively attempted to model the conditions and
settings under which armed conflict emerges, at sometimes resorting to formal models as tools
to generate hypotheses and predictions. In this paper, I analyse two distinct approaches to
formal modelling in IR: one that fits data into mathematical models and another that derives
statistical equations directly from a model’s assumption. In doing so, I raise the following
question: how should maths and stats be linked in order to consistently test the validity of
formal models in IR? To answer this question, I scrutinise James Fearon’s audience costs
model and Curtis Signorino’s strategic interaction game, highlighting their mathematical
assumptions and implications to testing formal models. I argue that Signorino’s approach
offer a more consistent set of epistemological and methodological tools to model testing,
for it derives statistical equations that respect a model’s assumptions, whereas the data-fit
approach tends to ignore such considerations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T17:22:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-65ab08a0f4364bd3ad653feb21665985 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2526-9038 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T17:22:11Z |
| publishDate | 2019-05-01 |
| publisher | Associação Brasileira de Relações Internacionais |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Carta Internacional |
| spelling | doaj.art-65ab08a0f4364bd3ad653feb216659852022-12-21T20:12:38ZengAssociação Brasileira de Relações InternacionaisCarta Internacional2526-90382019-05-011418010210.21530/ci.v14n1.2019.865865International conflict and strategic gamesEnzo Lenine Lima0Universidade da Integração Internacional da Lusofonia Afro-BrasileiraThe pervasiveness of international conflict makes of it one of the main topics of discussion among IR scholars. The discipline has extensively attempted to model the conditions and settings under which armed conflict emerges, at sometimes resorting to formal models as tools to generate hypotheses and predictions. In this paper, I analyse two distinct approaches to formal modelling in IR: one that fits data into mathematical models and another that derives statistical equations directly from a model’s assumption. In doing so, I raise the following question: how should maths and stats be linked in order to consistently test the validity of formal models in IR? To answer this question, I scrutinise James Fearon’s audience costs model and Curtis Signorino’s strategic interaction game, highlighting their mathematical assumptions and implications to testing formal models. I argue that Signorino’s approach offer a more consistent set of epistemological and methodological tools to model testing, for it derives statistical equations that respect a model’s assumptions, whereas the data-fit approach tends to ignore such considerations.https://www.cartainternacional.abri.org.br/Carta/article/view/865 |
| spellingShingle | Enzo Lenine Lima International conflict and strategic games Carta Internacional |
| title | International conflict and strategic games |
| title_full | International conflict and strategic games |
| title_fullStr | International conflict and strategic games |
| title_full_unstemmed | International conflict and strategic games |
| title_short | International conflict and strategic games |
| title_sort | international conflict and strategic games |
| url | https://www.cartainternacional.abri.org.br/Carta/article/view/865 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT enzoleninelima internationalconflictandstrategicgames |