Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
Abstract Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01808-z |
| _version_ | 1818743715771973632 |
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| author | Peter Hoffmann Jascha Lehmann Bijan H. Fallah Fred F. Hattermann |
| author_facet | Peter Hoffmann Jascha Lehmann Bijan H. Fallah Fred F. Hattermann |
| author_sort | Peter Hoffmann |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood and there is a need for improved methodologies to detect and quantify persistent weather conditions. Here, we propose a new method to detect, compare and quantify persistence through atmosphere similarity patterns by applying established image recognition methods to day to day atmospheric fields. We find that persistent weather patterns have increased in number and intensity over the last decades in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer, link this to hydro-climatic risks and evaluate the extreme summers of 2010 (Russian heat wave) and of 2018 (European drought). We further evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce long-term trend patterns of weather persistence and the result is a notable discrepancy to observed developments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T02:32:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-65e890d7eaa049acb7fda3801d8aa66e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T02:32:49Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-65e890d7eaa049acb7fda3801d8aa66e2022-12-21T21:23:51ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222021-11-0111111210.1038/s41598-021-01808-zAtmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risksPeter Hoffmann0Jascha Lehmann1Bijan H. Fallah2Fred F. Hattermann3Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Climate ResiliencePotsdam-Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Climate ResiliencePotsdam-Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Climate ResiliencePotsdam-Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Climate ResilienceAbstract Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood and there is a need for improved methodologies to detect and quantify persistent weather conditions. Here, we propose a new method to detect, compare and quantify persistence through atmosphere similarity patterns by applying established image recognition methods to day to day atmospheric fields. We find that persistent weather patterns have increased in number and intensity over the last decades in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer, link this to hydro-climatic risks and evaluate the extreme summers of 2010 (Russian heat wave) and of 2018 (European drought). We further evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce long-term trend patterns of weather persistence and the result is a notable discrepancy to observed developments.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01808-z |
| spellingShingle | Peter Hoffmann Jascha Lehmann Bijan H. Fallah Fred F. Hattermann Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks Scientific Reports |
| title | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
| title_full | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
| title_fullStr | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
| title_short | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
| title_sort | atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro climatic risks |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01808-z |
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