Radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the Arctic regions
Abstract Radiative forcing geoengineering is discussed as an intermediate solution to partially offset greenhouse gas-driven warming by altering the Earth’s energy budget. Here we use an Earth System Model to analyse the response in Arctic temperatures to radiative geoengineering applied under the r...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01329-3 |
| _version_ | 1797219528937046016 |
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| author | Rhonda C. Müller Jin-Soo Kim Hanna Lee Helene Muri Jerry Tjiputra Jin-Ho Yoon Gabriela Schaepman-Strub |
| author_facet | Rhonda C. Müller Jin-Soo Kim Hanna Lee Helene Muri Jerry Tjiputra Jin-Ho Yoon Gabriela Schaepman-Strub |
| author_sort | Rhonda C. Müller |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Radiative forcing geoengineering is discussed as an intermediate solution to partially offset greenhouse gas-driven warming by altering the Earth’s energy budget. Here we use an Earth System Model to analyse the response in Arctic temperatures to radiative geoengineering applied under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 to decrease the radiative forcing to that achieved under the representative concentration pathway 4.5. The three methods Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Marine Cloud Brightening, and Cirrus Cloud Thinning, mitigate the global mean temperature rise, however, under our experimental designs, the projected Arctic temperatures are higher than if the same temperature was achieved under emission mitigation. The maximum temperature increase under Cirrus Cloud Thinning and Marine Cloud Brightening is linked to carbon dioxide plant physiological forcing, shifting the system into climatic conditions favouring the development of fires. Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, the Arctic land with temperatures permanently below freezing decreased by 7.8% compared to the representative concentration pathway 4.5. This study concludes that these specific radiative forcing geoengineering designs induce less efficient cooling of the Arctic than the global mean and worsen extreme conditions compared to the representative concentration pathway 4.5. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:35:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-661601fa35a847acb64a3dfeabf41e9b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:35:05Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-661601fa35a847acb64a3dfeabf41e9b2024-04-07T11:32:05ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-04-015111210.1038/s43247-024-01329-3Radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the Arctic regionsRhonda C. Müller0Jin-Soo Kim1Hanna Lee2Helene Muri3Jerry Tjiputra4Jin-Ho Yoon5Gabriela Schaepman-Strub6Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of ZurichLow-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong KongDepartment of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and TechnologyIndustrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and TechnologyNORCE Norwegian Research Institute, Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchSchool of Earth Sciences and Environmental Engineering, Gwangju Institute of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of ZurichAbstract Radiative forcing geoengineering is discussed as an intermediate solution to partially offset greenhouse gas-driven warming by altering the Earth’s energy budget. Here we use an Earth System Model to analyse the response in Arctic temperatures to radiative geoengineering applied under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 to decrease the radiative forcing to that achieved under the representative concentration pathway 4.5. The three methods Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Marine Cloud Brightening, and Cirrus Cloud Thinning, mitigate the global mean temperature rise, however, under our experimental designs, the projected Arctic temperatures are higher than if the same temperature was achieved under emission mitigation. The maximum temperature increase under Cirrus Cloud Thinning and Marine Cloud Brightening is linked to carbon dioxide plant physiological forcing, shifting the system into climatic conditions favouring the development of fires. Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, the Arctic land with temperatures permanently below freezing decreased by 7.8% compared to the representative concentration pathway 4.5. This study concludes that these specific radiative forcing geoengineering designs induce less efficient cooling of the Arctic than the global mean and worsen extreme conditions compared to the representative concentration pathway 4.5.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01329-3 |
| spellingShingle | Rhonda C. Müller Jin-Soo Kim Hanna Lee Helene Muri Jerry Tjiputra Jin-Ho Yoon Gabriela Schaepman-Strub Radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the Arctic regions Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the Arctic regions |
| title_full | Radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the Arctic regions |
| title_fullStr | Radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the Arctic regions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the Arctic regions |
| title_short | Radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the Arctic regions |
| title_sort | radiative forcing geoengineering causes higher risk of wildfires and permafrost thawing over the arctic regions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01329-3 |
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