Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: revised
This study investigates the influence of a major solar proton event (SPE) similar to the Carrington event of 1–2 September 1859 by means of the 3D chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL v2.0. Ionization rates were parameterized according to CRAC:CRII (Cosmic Ray-induced Atmospheric Cascade: Application...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045010 |
| _version_ | 1827870571315068928 |
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| author | M Calisto I Usoskin E Rozanov |
| author_facet | M Calisto I Usoskin E Rozanov |
| author_sort | M Calisto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the influence of a major solar proton event (SPE) similar to the Carrington event of 1–2 September 1859 by means of the 3D chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL v2.0. Ionization rates were parameterized according to CRAC:CRII (Cosmic Ray-induced Atmospheric Cascade: Application for Cosmic Ray Induced Ionization), a detailed state-of-the-art model describing the effects of SPEs in the entire altitude range of the CCM from 0 to 80 km. This is the first study of the atmospheric effect of such an extreme event that considers all the effects of energetic particles, including the variability of galactic cosmic rays, in the entire atmosphere. We assumed two scenarios for the event, namely with a hard (as for the SPE of February 1956) and soft (as for the SPE of August 1972) spectrum of solar particles. We have placed such an event in the year 2020 in order to analyze the impact on a near future atmosphere. We find statistically significant effects on NO _x , HO _x , ozone, temperature and zonal wind. The results show an increase of NO _x of up to 80 ppb in the northern polar region and an increase of up to 70 ppb in the southern polar region. HO _x shows an increase of up to 4000%. Due to the NO _x and HO _x enhancements, ozone reduces by up to 60% in the mesosphere and by up to 20% in the stratosphere for several weeks after the event started. Total ozone shows a decrease of more than 20 DU in the northern hemisphere and up to 20 DU in the southern hemisphere. The model also identifies SPE induced statistically significant changes in the surface air temperature, with warming in the eastern part of Europe and Russia of up to 7 K for January. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-667adf8900fa4b5e8844ed205e6df4de |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:36Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-667adf8900fa4b5e8844ed205e6df4de2023-08-09T14:42:29ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018404501010.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045010Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: revisedM Calisto0I Usoskin1E Rozanov2International Space Science Institute (ISSI) , Bern, SwitzerlandSodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physics, University of Oulu , FI-90014 Oulu, FinlandPhysical-Meteorological Observatory/World Radiation Center , Davos, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH , Zurich, SwitzerlandThis study investigates the influence of a major solar proton event (SPE) similar to the Carrington event of 1–2 September 1859 by means of the 3D chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL v2.0. Ionization rates were parameterized according to CRAC:CRII (Cosmic Ray-induced Atmospheric Cascade: Application for Cosmic Ray Induced Ionization), a detailed state-of-the-art model describing the effects of SPEs in the entire altitude range of the CCM from 0 to 80 km. This is the first study of the atmospheric effect of such an extreme event that considers all the effects of energetic particles, including the variability of galactic cosmic rays, in the entire atmosphere. We assumed two scenarios for the event, namely with a hard (as for the SPE of February 1956) and soft (as for the SPE of August 1972) spectrum of solar particles. We have placed such an event in the year 2020 in order to analyze the impact on a near future atmosphere. We find statistically significant effects on NO _x , HO _x , ozone, temperature and zonal wind. The results show an increase of NO _x of up to 80 ppb in the northern polar region and an increase of up to 70 ppb in the southern polar region. HO _x shows an increase of up to 4000%. Due to the NO _x and HO _x enhancements, ozone reduces by up to 60% in the mesosphere and by up to 20% in the stratosphere for several weeks after the event started. Total ozone shows a decrease of more than 20 DU in the northern hemisphere and up to 20 DU in the southern hemisphere. The model also identifies SPE induced statistically significant changes in the surface air temperature, with warming in the eastern part of Europe and Russia of up to 7 K for January.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045010space weathermodelingCarrington event |
| spellingShingle | M Calisto I Usoskin E Rozanov Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: revised Environmental Research Letters space weather modeling Carrington event |
| title | Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: revised |
| title_full | Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: revised |
| title_fullStr | Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: revised |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: revised |
| title_short | Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics: revised |
| title_sort | influence of a carrington like event on the atmospheric chemistry temperature and dynamics revised |
| topic | space weather modeling Carrington event |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045010 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mcalisto influenceofacarringtonlikeeventontheatmosphericchemistrytemperatureanddynamicsrevised AT iusoskin influenceofacarringtonlikeeventontheatmosphericchemistrytemperatureanddynamicsrevised AT erozanov influenceofacarringtonlikeeventontheatmosphericchemistrytemperatureanddynamicsrevised |