Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease
The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave is rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time, it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows us to quantitativel...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Physics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fphy.2020.00276/full |
| _version_ | 1818997517641056256 |
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| author | Martin Kröger Reinhard Schlickeiser Reinhard Schlickeiser |
| author_facet | Martin Kröger Reinhard Schlickeiser Reinhard Schlickeiser |
| author_sort | Martin Kröger |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave is rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time, it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows us to quantitatively forecast the time evolution of infections and fatalities during a pandemic wave. In light of the various descriptors, such as doubling times and reproduction factors, currently in use to judge the lockdowns and other measures that aim to prevent spreading of the virus, we hereby provide both exact and simple approximate relationships between the two relevant parameters of the Gauss model (peak time and width), the transient behavior of two versions of doubling times, and three variants of reproduction factors, including basic reproduction numbers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T21:46:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-667e5ea31bd34e15834ef7a450ddca33 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-424X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T21:46:54Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-667e5ea31bd34e15834ef7a450ddca332022-12-21T19:25:40ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Physics2296-424X2020-07-01810.3389/fphy.2020.00276562898Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic DiseaseMartin Kröger0Reinhard Schlickeiser1Reinhard Schlickeiser2Polymer Physics, Department of Materials, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitut für Theoretische Physik, Lehrstuhl IV: Weltraum- und Astrophysik, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Bochum, GermanyInstitut für Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, GermanyThe Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave is rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time, it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows us to quantitatively forecast the time evolution of infections and fatalities during a pandemic wave. In light of the various descriptors, such as doubling times and reproduction factors, currently in use to judge the lockdowns and other measures that aim to prevent spreading of the virus, we hereby provide both exact and simple approximate relationships between the two relevant parameters of the Gauss model (peak time and width), the transient behavior of two versions of doubling times, and three variants of reproduction factors, including basic reproduction numbers.https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fphy.2020.00276/fullcoronavirusstatistical analysisextrapolationparameter estimationpandemic spreading |
| spellingShingle | Martin Kröger Reinhard Schlickeiser Reinhard Schlickeiser Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease Frontiers in Physics coronavirus statistical analysis extrapolation parameter estimation pandemic spreading |
| title | Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease |
| title_full | Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease |
| title_fullStr | Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease |
| title_full_unstemmed | Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease |
| title_short | Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease |
| title_sort | gaussian doubling times and reproduction factors of the covid 19 pandemic disease |
| topic | coronavirus statistical analysis extrapolation parameter estimation pandemic spreading |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fphy.2020.00276/full |
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