| Summary: | Background The prevalence of hip fractures is increasing due to increased number of aging people and availability of modern transportation. Elderly patients with hip fracture tend to have many basic diseases and poor prognosis, with 1-year postoperative mortality as high as 15%-25%. Timely screening of those at high risk of hip fractures with predictive tools and providing them with interventions can improve the prognosis. But there are rare studies and no appropriate objective indicators regarding predicted 1-year postoperative mortality in older hip fracture patients. Objective To assess the predictive association of Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score and other possible associated factors for 1-year postoperative mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture. Methods A total of 399 patients with unilateral hip fracture (including femoral neck and intertrochanteric fractures) hospitalized in Xuanwu Hospital Capital Medical University from January 2013 to March 2016 were selected. General data, routine blood test results, biochemical and coagulation indices, and calculated CONUT score, geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were collected. All the patients received internal fixation or femoral head replacement procedure, and 1-year postoperative clinic- and telephone-based follow-up with death as an endpoint. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to identify influencing factors of 1-year postoperative mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to analyze the predictive value of CONUT score for 1-year postoperative mortality. Results Among the 399 patients, 47 died and 352 survived at the end of follow-up. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis found that age〔OR=1.093, 95%CI (1.040, 1.148) 〕, old cerebral infarction〔OR=0.353, 95%CI (0.169, 0.737) 〕, serum creatinine〔OR=1.006, 95%CI (1.002, 1.010) 〕, CONUT score〔OR=1.261, 95%CI (1.005, 1.583) 〕 and NLR〔OR=1.049, 95%CI (1.003, 1.098) 〕 were associated with 1-year postoperative mortality (P<0.05). In predicting 1-year postoperative mortality, the area under the curve of CONUT score was 0.681〔95%CI (0.590, 0.771) 〕 with 4.5 as the optimal cutoff point, 48.9% sensitivity and 83.5% specificity. The area under the curve of NLR was 0.611〔95%CI (0.523, 0.699) 〕, with 7.055 μg/L as the optimal cutoff point, and 47.8% sensitivity and 75.9% specificity. Conclusion Age, old cerebral infarction, serum creatinine, CONUT score and NLR were associated with 1-year postoperative mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture. Preoperative CONUT score greater than 5 may be associated with worse postoperative nutritional status and higher risk of death. The CONUT score could be used for postoperative risk assessment in these patients.
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