Attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land-use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land-use dynamics
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is considered one of the major drivers of climate change, although climate change can also foster direct or indirect influences leading to LULCC. The objective of the presented study is to offer a strategic observation frame as the land use and land cover (LULC...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/4087 |
| _version_ | 1811185981971234816 |
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| author | Mert Can Gunacti Fulya Aydin Kandemir Mohamed Najar Aysegul Kuzucu Meltem Uyar Filiz Barbaros Hulya Boyacioglu Gulay Onusluel Gul Ali Gul |
| author_facet | Mert Can Gunacti Fulya Aydin Kandemir Mohamed Najar Aysegul Kuzucu Meltem Uyar Filiz Barbaros Hulya Boyacioglu Gulay Onusluel Gul Ali Gul |
| author_sort | Mert Can Gunacti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is considered one of the major drivers of climate change, although climate change can also foster direct or indirect influences leading to LULCC. The objective of the presented study is to offer a strategic observation frame as the land use and land cover (LULC) transitions are grouped to define the cover flows (CFs). The Küçük Menderes River Basin (KMRB), which is located in the west of Turkey was examined as the case study. Through LULCC modelling via the employment of multi-layer perceptron (MLP), cellular automata (CA), and Markov Chain methods, future LULC maps were projected up to the horizon of 2050. Hydrologic responses of the basin to LULCC were determined by the developed hydrologic model, which is generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The superimposed impacts of the examined effects of LULCC have been investigated by the CF types. This way, the individual impacts of the CFs have been assessed. In the case of the KMRB, projected annual runoffs for the year 2050 cover map represent a 9.06% reduction and the major responsible CF type for this reduction is the conversion from forest to non-irrigated agricultural land cover by 22.90%.
HIGHLIGHTS
Future water availability of the KMRB is investigated by the defined cover flows.;
About a 9% reduction in surface water volume is expected by the year 2050 at the KMRB outlet.;
Conversion to non-irrigated agriculture is the major cause of the water volume reduction in the basin.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T13:38:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-66a1f388f0da4bc8a45db6d8cd8a9e2a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T13:38:42Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-66a1f388f0da4bc8a45db6d8cd8a9e2a2022-12-22T04:21:21ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542022-11-0113114087410410.2166/wcc.2022.304304Attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land-use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land-use dynamicsMert Can Gunacti0Fulya Aydin Kandemir1Mohamed Najar2Aysegul Kuzucu3Meltem Uyar4Filiz Barbaros5Hulya Boyacioglu6Gulay Onusluel Gul7Ali Gul8 Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey Graduate Faculty of Solar Energy, Ege University, Izmir, Turkey The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey Faculty of Engineering, Department of Environmental Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is considered one of the major drivers of climate change, although climate change can also foster direct or indirect influences leading to LULCC. The objective of the presented study is to offer a strategic observation frame as the land use and land cover (LULC) transitions are grouped to define the cover flows (CFs). The Küçük Menderes River Basin (KMRB), which is located in the west of Turkey was examined as the case study. Through LULCC modelling via the employment of multi-layer perceptron (MLP), cellular automata (CA), and Markov Chain methods, future LULC maps were projected up to the horizon of 2050. Hydrologic responses of the basin to LULCC were determined by the developed hydrologic model, which is generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The superimposed impacts of the examined effects of LULCC have been investigated by the CF types. This way, the individual impacts of the CFs have been assessed. In the case of the KMRB, projected annual runoffs for the year 2050 cover map represent a 9.06% reduction and the major responsible CF type for this reduction is the conversion from forest to non-irrigated agricultural land cover by 22.90%. HIGHLIGHTS Future water availability of the KMRB is investigated by the defined cover flows.; About a 9% reduction in surface water volume is expected by the year 2050 at the KMRB outlet.; Conversion to non-irrigated agriculture is the major cause of the water volume reduction in the basin.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/4087cover flowhydrology simulationmediterranean regionswat modelstatistical analysiswater resources management |
| spellingShingle | Mert Can Gunacti Fulya Aydin Kandemir Mohamed Najar Aysegul Kuzucu Meltem Uyar Filiz Barbaros Hulya Boyacioglu Gulay Onusluel Gul Ali Gul Attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land-use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land-use dynamics Journal of Water and Climate Change cover flow hydrology simulation mediterranean region swat model statistical analysis water resources management |
| title | Attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land-use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land-use dynamics |
| title_full | Attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land-use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land-use dynamics |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land-use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land-use dynamics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land-use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land-use dynamics |
| title_short | Attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land-use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land-use dynamics |
| title_sort | attribution of changes in the water balance of a basin to land use changes through combined modelling of basin hydrology and land use dynamics |
| topic | cover flow hydrology simulation mediterranean region swat model statistical analysis water resources management |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/11/4087 |
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