Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017
Abstract Background Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide. Methods All data were obtained from the health...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2019-01-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-019-6465-2 |
| _version_ | 1819162658582036480 |
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| author | Junming Li Xiulan Han Xiangxue Zhang Sixian Wang |
| author_facet | Junming Li Xiulan Han Xiangxue Zhang Sixian Wang |
| author_sort | Junming Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide. Methods All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions. Results Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing—Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK—whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113–3.214), 3.071 (3.018–3.122), 2.951 (2.903–3.001), 2.932 (2.880–2.984) and 2.917 (2.869–2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased. Conclusions The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T17:31:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-66bddf8a3b6140de9429942e697d6667 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T17:31:44Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-66bddf8a3b6140de9429942e697d66672022-12-21T18:18:36ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582019-01-0119111510.1186/s12889-019-6465-2Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017Junming Li0Xiulan Han1Xiangxue Zhang2Sixian Wang3School of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance and EconomicsSchool of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance and EconomicsSchool of Earth Science and Resources, Chang’an UniversitySchool of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance and EconomicsAbstract Background Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide. Methods All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions. Results Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing—Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK—whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113–3.214), 3.071 (3.018–3.122), 2.951 (2.903–3.001), 2.932 (2.880–2.984) and 2.917 (2.869–2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased. Conclusions The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-019-6465-2Spatiotemporal evolutionGlobal population ageingBayesian statistics |
| spellingShingle | Junming Li Xiulan Han Xiangxue Zhang Sixian Wang Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017 BMC Public Health Spatiotemporal evolution Global population ageing Bayesian statistics |
| title | Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017 |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017 |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017 |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017 |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017 |
| topic | Spatiotemporal evolution Global population ageing Bayesian statistics |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-019-6465-2 |
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