Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models
Climate change is perceived to be the primary reason for the amplification of extreme climatic phenomena. Estimation of changes in extreme values under climate change thus plays an important role in disaster risk assessment and management. However, the different changes in extremes in two distinct r...
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MDPI AG
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/11/1747 |
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| author | Samiran Das Mohammad Kamruzzaman Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam Dehua Zhu Amit Kumar |
| author_facet | Samiran Das Mohammad Kamruzzaman Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam Dehua Zhu Amit Kumar |
| author_sort | Samiran Das |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is perceived to be the primary reason for the amplification of extreme climatic phenomena. Estimation of changes in extreme values under climate change thus plays an important role in disaster risk assessment and management. However, the different changes in extremes in two distinct regions: inland and coast under climate change are yet to be investigated meticulously. This study is intended to assess the changes in frequency of rainfall and temperature extremes under the impact of climate change in two distinct locations: coast and inland of Bengal delta, a region highly vulnerable to climate change. The multi-model ensemble (projections from CMIP6 framework) technique with the application of frequency analysis was employed to appraise the impact in two future time horizons. Results suggest that the inland estimate of extreme rainfall by the end of this century is barely able to exceed the coastal estimate of extreme rainfall in present conditions. The rate of increase of warm extremes is almost similar; however, with the cold extreme, the increase rate is a little higher inland than on the coast. In both regions, a greater rise in climate extremes is expected in the far future than in the near future. Overall, the coastal area is expected to be more vulnerable to flooding while the inland to drought under climate change in the Bengal delta region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:17:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-66bf05a5d55c443ebb1bfffa5bead8f1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:17:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-66bf05a5d55c443ebb1bfffa5bead8f12023-11-24T03:41:33ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-10-011311174710.3390/atmos13111747Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate ModelsSamiran Das0Mohammad Kamruzzaman1Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam2Dehua Zhu3Amit Kumar4Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaFMPHT Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur 1701, BangladeshDepartment of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur 5400, BangladeshKey Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaKey Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaClimate change is perceived to be the primary reason for the amplification of extreme climatic phenomena. Estimation of changes in extreme values under climate change thus plays an important role in disaster risk assessment and management. However, the different changes in extremes in two distinct regions: inland and coast under climate change are yet to be investigated meticulously. This study is intended to assess the changes in frequency of rainfall and temperature extremes under the impact of climate change in two distinct locations: coast and inland of Bengal delta, a region highly vulnerable to climate change. The multi-model ensemble (projections from CMIP6 framework) technique with the application of frequency analysis was employed to appraise the impact in two future time horizons. Results suggest that the inland estimate of extreme rainfall by the end of this century is barely able to exceed the coastal estimate of extreme rainfall in present conditions. The rate of increase of warm extremes is almost similar; however, with the cold extreme, the increase rate is a little higher inland than on the coast. In both regions, a greater rise in climate extremes is expected in the far future than in the near future. Overall, the coastal area is expected to be more vulnerable to flooding while the inland to drought under climate change in the Bengal delta region.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/11/1747climate extremestemperature extremesrainfall extremesextreme value analysischange in extremesclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Samiran Das Mohammad Kamruzzaman Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam Dehua Zhu Amit Kumar Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models Atmosphere climate extremes temperature extremes rainfall extremes extreme value analysis change in extremes climate change |
| title | Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models |
| title_full | Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models |
| title_fullStr | Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models |
| title_short | Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models |
| title_sort | comparison of future changes in frequency of climate extremes between coastal and inland locations of bengal delta based on cmip6 climate models |
| topic | climate extremes temperature extremes rainfall extremes extreme value analysis change in extremes climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/11/1747 |
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