Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate
Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds d...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064017 |
| _version_ | 1827871133359144960 |
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| author | A H Butler J S Daniel R W Portmann A R Ravishankara P J Young D W Fahey K H Rosenlof |
| author_facet | A H Butler J S Daniel R W Portmann A R Ravishankara P J Young D W Fahey K H Rosenlof |
| author_sort | A H Butler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer’s dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-66c378202f744d99a84e3c8b321f1437 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:32Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-66c378202f744d99a84e3c8b321f14372023-08-09T14:20:15ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262016-01-0111606401710.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064017Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climateA H Butler0J S Daniel1R W Portmann2A R Ravishankara3P J Young4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5608-8887D W Fahey5K H Rosenlof6National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USA; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado-Boulder , Boulder, CO, USANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USADepartments of Chemistry and Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University , Fort Collins, CO, USALancaster University , Lancaster, UKNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USADue to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer’s dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064017ozoneultraviolet radiationnitrous oxideclimate changepolicy |
| spellingShingle | A H Butler J S Daniel R W Portmann A R Ravishankara P J Young D W Fahey K H Rosenlof Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate Environmental Research Letters ozone ultraviolet radiation nitrous oxide climate change policy |
| title | Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate |
| title_full | Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate |
| title_fullStr | Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate |
| title_short | Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate |
| title_sort | diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface uv in a changing climate |
| topic | ozone ultraviolet radiation nitrous oxide climate change policy |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064017 |
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