Quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index
Exploring the impact of climate change on drought under changing environmental conditions is crucial for agriculture, ecology, and human society. To evaluate the role of climate change on drought, this study selected the Songnen Plain (SNP) in Northeast China as a study area in which to quantify the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2021-02-01
|
| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20310463 |
| _version_ | 1818425797400068096 |
|---|---|
| author | Ruxin Zhao Huixiao Wang Ji Chen Guobin Fu Chesheng Zhan Huicai Yang |
| author_facet | Ruxin Zhao Huixiao Wang Ji Chen Guobin Fu Chesheng Zhan Huicai Yang |
| author_sort | Ruxin Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Exploring the impact of climate change on drought under changing environmental conditions is crucial for agriculture, ecology, and human society. To evaluate the role of climate change on drought, this study selected the Songnen Plain (SNP) in Northeast China as a study area in which to quantify the relative contributions of climatic variables to the drought trend in accordance with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). A series of SPEI-based numerical experiments, using combinations of observational and nonlinear detrended climatic variable data series, was used as a synthetic approach with which to analyze the relative impact of the individual climatic variables. Results indicated that drought on the SNP has been mitigated marginally during 1961–2016, mainly during spring, winter, the growing season, and on the annual timescale. Significant trends were detected in relation to temperature, sunshine duration, and wind speed, and these variables had differing roles in drought evolution. An increasing trend in temperature was found to aggravate drought tendency at all investigated timescales; however, decreasing trends in net radiation and wind speed offset the drought tendency caused by rising temperature. The positive contribution of wind speed was larger than the negative contribution of temperature, especially in areas around 46°N. Although the change of precipitation was not significant, it promoted drought mitigation on the SNP in spring, winter, the growing season, and on the annual timescale. The analysis framework used in this study was shown useful for improving understanding of the relationship between climate change and drought evolution, and it could prove helpful in providing rational and regulatory policy strategies regarding drought relief. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T14:19:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-66ce7bbecef84845bf46d6e1966374c7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T14:19:39Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-66ce7bbecef84845bf46d6e1966374c72022-12-21T22:58:06ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2021-02-01121107107Quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration indexRuxin Zhao0Huixiao Wang1Ji Chen2Guobin Fu3Chesheng Zhan4Huicai Yang5Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaBeijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Corresponding author at: No. 19, Xueyuannan Road, Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian District, Beijing 100875, China.Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, ChinaCSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, AustraliaKey Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Yucheng Comprehensive Experiment Station, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, ChinaSchool of Land Resources and Urban and Rural Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050000, ChinaExploring the impact of climate change on drought under changing environmental conditions is crucial for agriculture, ecology, and human society. To evaluate the role of climate change on drought, this study selected the Songnen Plain (SNP) in Northeast China as a study area in which to quantify the relative contributions of climatic variables to the drought trend in accordance with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). A series of SPEI-based numerical experiments, using combinations of observational and nonlinear detrended climatic variable data series, was used as a synthetic approach with which to analyze the relative impact of the individual climatic variables. Results indicated that drought on the SNP has been mitigated marginally during 1961–2016, mainly during spring, winter, the growing season, and on the annual timescale. Significant trends were detected in relation to temperature, sunshine duration, and wind speed, and these variables had differing roles in drought evolution. An increasing trend in temperature was found to aggravate drought tendency at all investigated timescales; however, decreasing trends in net radiation and wind speed offset the drought tendency caused by rising temperature. The positive contribution of wind speed was larger than the negative contribution of temperature, especially in areas around 46°N. Although the change of precipitation was not significant, it promoted drought mitigation on the SNP in spring, winter, the growing season, and on the annual timescale. The analysis framework used in this study was shown useful for improving understanding of the relationship between climate change and drought evolution, and it could prove helpful in providing rational and regulatory policy strategies regarding drought relief.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20310463Climate changeNonlinear changeSPEIRelative contributionDrought |
| spellingShingle | Ruxin Zhao Huixiao Wang Ji Chen Guobin Fu Chesheng Zhan Huicai Yang Quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index Ecological Indicators Climate change Nonlinear change SPEI Relative contribution Drought |
| title | Quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index |
| title_full | Quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index |
| title_fullStr | Quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index |
| title_short | Quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index |
| title_sort | quantitative analysis of nonlinear climate change impact on drought based on the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index |
| topic | Climate change Nonlinear change SPEI Relative contribution Drought |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20310463 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ruxinzhao quantitativeanalysisofnonlinearclimatechangeimpactondroughtbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationandevapotranspirationindex AT huixiaowang quantitativeanalysisofnonlinearclimatechangeimpactondroughtbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationandevapotranspirationindex AT jichen quantitativeanalysisofnonlinearclimatechangeimpactondroughtbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationandevapotranspirationindex AT guobinfu quantitativeanalysisofnonlinearclimatechangeimpactondroughtbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationandevapotranspirationindex AT cheshengzhan quantitativeanalysisofnonlinearclimatechangeimpactondroughtbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationandevapotranspirationindex AT huicaiyang quantitativeanalysisofnonlinearclimatechangeimpactondroughtbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationandevapotranspirationindex |