Reopen schools safely: simulating COVID-19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent-based model
As the COVID-19 vaccination has been quickly rolling out around the globe, the evaluation of the effects of vaccinating populations for the safe reopening of schools has become a focal point for educators, decision-makers, and the general public. Within this context, we develop a contact network age...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Taylor & Francis Group
2022-12-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Digital Earth |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2022.2032419 |
| _version_ | 1797678489342574592 |
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| author | Chuyao Liao Xiang Chen Li Zhuo Yuan Liu Haiyan Tao Christopher G. Burton |
| author_facet | Chuyao Liao Xiang Chen Li Zhuo Yuan Liu Haiyan Tao Christopher G. Burton |
| author_sort | Chuyao Liao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As the COVID-19 vaccination has been quickly rolling out around the globe, the evaluation of the effects of vaccinating populations for the safe reopening of schools has become a focal point for educators, decision-makers, and the general public. Within this context, we develop a contact network agent-based model (CN-ABM) to simulate on-campus disease transmission scenarios. The CN-ABM establishes contact networks for agents based on their daily activity patterns, evaluates the agents’ health status change in different activity environments, and then simulates the epidemic curve. By applying the model to a real-world campus environment, we identify how different community risk levels, teaching modalities, and vaccination rates would shape the epidemic curve. The results show that without vaccination, retaining under 50% of on-campus students can largely flatten the curve, and having 25% on-campus students can achieve the best result (peak value < 1%). With vaccination, having a maximum of 75% on-campus students and at least a 45% vaccination rate can suppress the curve, and a 65% vaccination rate can achieve the best result. The developed CN-ABM can be employed to assist local government and school officials with developing proactive intervention strategies to safely reopen schools. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:00:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-66cffa35aa6540129328f2b0bf1008ad |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1753-8947 1753-8955 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:00:30Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Digital Earth |
| spelling | doaj.art-66cffa35aa6540129328f2b0bf1008ad2023-09-21T14:57:10ZengTaylor & Francis GroupInternational Journal of Digital Earth1753-89471753-89552022-12-0115138139610.1080/17538947.2022.20324192032419Reopen schools safely: simulating COVID-19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent-based modelChuyao Liao0Xiang Chen1Li Zhuo2Yuan Liu3Haiyan Tao4Christopher G. Burton5Sun Yat-sen UniversityUniversity of ConnecticutSun Yat-sen UniversitySun Yat-sen UniversitySun Yat-sen UniversityUniversity of ConnecticutAs the COVID-19 vaccination has been quickly rolling out around the globe, the evaluation of the effects of vaccinating populations for the safe reopening of schools has become a focal point for educators, decision-makers, and the general public. Within this context, we develop a contact network agent-based model (CN-ABM) to simulate on-campus disease transmission scenarios. The CN-ABM establishes contact networks for agents based on their daily activity patterns, evaluates the agents’ health status change in different activity environments, and then simulates the epidemic curve. By applying the model to a real-world campus environment, we identify how different community risk levels, teaching modalities, and vaccination rates would shape the epidemic curve. The results show that without vaccination, retaining under 50% of on-campus students can largely flatten the curve, and having 25% on-campus students can achieve the best result (peak value < 1%). With vaccination, having a maximum of 75% on-campus students and at least a 45% vaccination rate can suppress the curve, and a 65% vaccination rate can achieve the best result. The developed CN-ABM can be employed to assist local government and school officials with developing proactive intervention strategies to safely reopen schools.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2022.2032419covid-19contact networkvaccinationagent-based modelingschool |
| spellingShingle | Chuyao Liao Xiang Chen Li Zhuo Yuan Liu Haiyan Tao Christopher G. Burton Reopen schools safely: simulating COVID-19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent-based model International Journal of Digital Earth covid-19 contact network vaccination agent-based modeling school |
| title | Reopen schools safely: simulating COVID-19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent-based model |
| title_full | Reopen schools safely: simulating COVID-19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent-based model |
| title_fullStr | Reopen schools safely: simulating COVID-19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent-based model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reopen schools safely: simulating COVID-19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent-based model |
| title_short | Reopen schools safely: simulating COVID-19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent-based model |
| title_sort | reopen schools safely simulating covid 19 transmission on campus with a contact network agent based model |
| topic | covid-19 contact network vaccination agent-based modeling school |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2022.2032419 |
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