Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
Abstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100368&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1818553823832047616 |
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| author | Aédson Nascimento Góis Estevão Esmi Laureano David da Silva Santos Daniel Eduardo Sánchez Luiz Fernando Souza Rita de Cássia Almeida Vieira Jussiely Cunha Oliveira Eduesley Santana-Santos |
| author_facet | Aédson Nascimento Góis Estevão Esmi Laureano David da Silva Santos Daniel Eduardo Sánchez Luiz Fernando Souza Rita de Cássia Almeida Vieira Jussiely Cunha Oliveira Eduesley Santana-Santos |
| author_sort | Aédson Nascimento Góis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local population. METHODS: This is an epidemiological mathematical modeling study conducted to analyze the dynamics of the accumulated cases of COVID-19, which used a logistic growth model that adds a term of withdrawal of individuals as a control measure. Three possible COVID-19 propagation scenarios were simulated based on three different rates of withdrawal of individuals. They were adjusted with real data of the infected and measures of control over the population. RESULTS: The lockdown would be the best scenario, with a lower incidence of infected people, when compared to the other measures. The number of infected people would grow slowly over the months, and the number of symptomatic individuals in this scenario would be 40,265 cases. We noticed that the State of Sergipe is still in the initial stage of the disease in the scenarios. It was possible to observe that the peak of cases and the equilibrium, in the current situation of social isolation, will occur when reaching the new support capacity, at the end of August in approximately 1,171,353 infected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We established that lockdown is the intervention with the highest ability to mitigate the spread of the virus among the population. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T09:30:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-66eee30074bb4a0e9e08a8b49c319c02 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1678-9849 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T09:30:52Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
| spelling | doaj.art-66eee30074bb4a0e9e08a8b49c319c022022-12-22T00:28:52ZengSociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical1678-98492020-10-015310.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling studyAédson Nascimento Góishttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9118-6247Estevão Esmi LaureanoDavid da Silva SantosDaniel Eduardo SánchezLuiz Fernando SouzaRita de Cássia Almeida VieiraJussiely Cunha OliveiraEduesley Santana-SantosAbstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local population. METHODS: This is an epidemiological mathematical modeling study conducted to analyze the dynamics of the accumulated cases of COVID-19, which used a logistic growth model that adds a term of withdrawal of individuals as a control measure. Three possible COVID-19 propagation scenarios were simulated based on three different rates of withdrawal of individuals. They were adjusted with real data of the infected and measures of control over the population. RESULTS: The lockdown would be the best scenario, with a lower incidence of infected people, when compared to the other measures. The number of infected people would grow slowly over the months, and the number of symptomatic individuals in this scenario would be 40,265 cases. We noticed that the State of Sergipe is still in the initial stage of the disease in the scenarios. It was possible to observe that the peak of cases and the equilibrium, in the current situation of social isolation, will occur when reaching the new support capacity, at the end of August in approximately 1,171,353 infected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We established that lockdown is the intervention with the highest ability to mitigate the spread of the virus among the population.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100368&tlng=enCOVID-19Coronavirus infectionSocial isolationEpidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Aédson Nascimento Góis Estevão Esmi Laureano David da Silva Santos Daniel Eduardo Sánchez Luiz Fernando Souza Rita de Cássia Almeida Vieira Jussiely Cunha Oliveira Eduesley Santana-Santos Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical COVID-19 Coronavirus infection Social isolation Epidemiology |
| title | Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
| title_full | Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
| title_fullStr | Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
| title_short | Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
| title_sort | lockdown as an intervention measure to mitigate the spread of covid 19 a modeling study |
| topic | COVID-19 Coronavirus infection Social isolation Epidemiology |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100368&tlng=en |
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