Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes
Land use and cover (LUC) of southern European mountains is dramatically changing, mainly due to observed socioeconomic demands and climatic changes. It is therefore important to understand LUC changes to accurately predict future landscapes and their threats. Simulation models of LUC change are idea...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | Land |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/253 |
| _version_ | 1797439750016073728 |
|---|---|
| author | Diogenis A. Kiziridis Anna Mastrogianni Magdalini Pleniou Spyros Tsiftsis Fotios Xystrakis Ioannis Tsiripidis |
| author_facet | Diogenis A. Kiziridis Anna Mastrogianni Magdalini Pleniou Spyros Tsiftsis Fotios Xystrakis Ioannis Tsiripidis |
| author_sort | Diogenis A. Kiziridis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land use and cover (LUC) of southern European mountains is dramatically changing, mainly due to observed socioeconomic demands and climatic changes. It is therefore important to understand LUC changes to accurately predict future landscapes and their threats. Simulation models of LUC change are ideal for this task because they allow the in silico experimentation under different socioeconomic and climatic scenarios. In the present study, we employed the trans-CLUE-S model, to predict for 2055 the LUC of a typical southern European sub-mountainous area, which has experienced widespread abandonment until recently. Four demand scenarios were tested, and under each demand scenario, we compared three climatic scenarios, ranging from less to more warm and dry conditions. We found that farmland declined from 3.2% of the landscape in 2015 to 0.4% in 2055 under the business-as-usual demand scenario, whereas forest further increased from 62.6% to 79%. For any demand scenario, differences in LUC between maps predicted under different climatic scenarios constituted less than 10% of the landscape. In the less than 10% that differed, mainly farmland and forest shifted to higher elevation under a warmer and drier climate, whereas grassland and scrubland to lower. Such insights by modelling analyses like the present study’s can improve the planning and implementation of management and restoration policies which will attempt to conserve ecosystem services and mitigate the negative effects of socioeconomic and climatic changes in the mountainous regions of southern Europe. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T11:58:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-66f742a602ab4b38b1d7cdb86e793d00 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T11:58:29Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-66f742a602ab4b38b1d7cdb86e793d002023-11-30T23:06:27ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2023-01-0112125310.3390/land12010253Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic ChangesDiogenis A. Kiziridis0Anna Mastrogianni1Magdalini Pleniou2Spyros Tsiftsis3Fotios Xystrakis4Ioannis Tsiripidis5Department of Botany, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceDepartment of Botany, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceForest Research Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 57006 Vassilika, GreeceDepartment of Forest and Natural Environment Sciences, International Hellenic University, 1st km Drama-Mikrochori, 66132 Drama, GreeceForest Research Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization “DIMITRA”, 57006 Vassilika, GreeceDepartment of Botany, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceLand use and cover (LUC) of southern European mountains is dramatically changing, mainly due to observed socioeconomic demands and climatic changes. It is therefore important to understand LUC changes to accurately predict future landscapes and their threats. Simulation models of LUC change are ideal for this task because they allow the in silico experimentation under different socioeconomic and climatic scenarios. In the present study, we employed the trans-CLUE-S model, to predict for 2055 the LUC of a typical southern European sub-mountainous area, which has experienced widespread abandonment until recently. Four demand scenarios were tested, and under each demand scenario, we compared three climatic scenarios, ranging from less to more warm and dry conditions. We found that farmland declined from 3.2% of the landscape in 2015 to 0.4% in 2055 under the business-as-usual demand scenario, whereas forest further increased from 62.6% to 79%. For any demand scenario, differences in LUC between maps predicted under different climatic scenarios constituted less than 10% of the landscape. In the less than 10% that differed, mainly farmland and forest shifted to higher elevation under a warmer and drier climate, whereas grassland and scrubland to lower. Such insights by modelling analyses like the present study’s can improve the planning and implementation of management and restoration policies which will attempt to conserve ecosystem services and mitigate the negative effects of socioeconomic and climatic changes in the mountainous regions of southern Europe.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/253croplandpasturelandshrublandwoody encroachmentrewildingtranshumance |
| spellingShingle | Diogenis A. Kiziridis Anna Mastrogianni Magdalini Pleniou Spyros Tsiftsis Fotios Xystrakis Ioannis Tsiripidis Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes Land cropland pastureland shrubland woody encroachment rewilding transhumance |
| title | Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes |
| title_full | Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes |
| title_fullStr | Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes |
| title_short | Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes |
| title_sort | simulating future land use and cover of a mediterranean mountainous area the effect of socioeconomic demands and climatic changes |
| topic | cropland pastureland shrubland woody encroachment rewilding transhumance |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/253 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT diogenisakiziridis simulatingfuturelanduseandcoverofamediterraneanmountainousareatheeffectofsocioeconomicdemandsandclimaticchanges AT annamastrogianni simulatingfuturelanduseandcoverofamediterraneanmountainousareatheeffectofsocioeconomicdemandsandclimaticchanges AT magdalinipleniou simulatingfuturelanduseandcoverofamediterraneanmountainousareatheeffectofsocioeconomicdemandsandclimaticchanges AT spyrostsiftsis simulatingfuturelanduseandcoverofamediterraneanmountainousareatheeffectofsocioeconomicdemandsandclimaticchanges AT fotiosxystrakis simulatingfuturelanduseandcoverofamediterraneanmountainousareatheeffectofsocioeconomicdemandsandclimaticchanges AT ioannistsiripidis simulatingfuturelanduseandcoverofamediterraneanmountainousareatheeffectofsocioeconomicdemandsandclimaticchanges |