Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns
Abstract The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion th...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2022-01-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04369-3 |
| _version_ | 1831715505280385024 |
|---|---|
| author | Bipana Paudel Timilsena Saliou Niassy Emily Kimathi Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman Irmgard Seidl-Adams Mark Wamalwa Henri E. Z. Tonnang Sunday Ekesi David P. Hughes Edwin G. Rajotte Sevgan Subramanian |
| author_facet | Bipana Paudel Timilsena Saliou Niassy Emily Kimathi Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman Irmgard Seidl-Adams Mark Wamalwa Henri E. Z. Tonnang Sunday Ekesi David P. Hughes Edwin G. Rajotte Sevgan Subramanian |
| author_sort | Bipana Paudel Timilsena |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future projections suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is projected to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW ‘hotspots’ from where it may migrate to the north and south during favorable seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T00:21:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6712730e56c3444582cd603fcabfbea9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T00:21:41Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-6712730e56c3444582cd603fcabfbea92022-12-21T19:22:06ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-01-0112111510.1038/s41598-021-04369-3Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patternsBipana Paudel Timilsena0Saliou Niassy1Emily Kimathi2Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman3Irmgard Seidl-Adams4Mark Wamalwa5Henri E. Z. Tonnang6Sunday Ekesi7David P. Hughes8Edwin G. Rajotte9Sevgan Subramanian10Chemical Ecology Lab, Department of Entomology, The Pennsylvania State UniversityInternational Center for Insect Physiology and Chemical EcologyInternational Center for Insect Physiology and Chemical EcologyInternational Center for Insect Physiology and Chemical EcologyChemical Ecology Lab, Department of Entomology, The Pennsylvania State UniversityInternational Center for Insect Physiology and Chemical EcologyInternational Center for Insect Physiology and Chemical EcologyInternational Center for Insect Physiology and Chemical EcologyChemical Ecology Lab, Department of Entomology, The Pennsylvania State UniversityChemical Ecology Lab, Department of Entomology, The Pennsylvania State UniversityInternational Center for Insect Physiology and Chemical EcologyAbstract The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future projections suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is projected to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW ‘hotspots’ from where it may migrate to the north and south during favorable seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04369-3 |
| spellingShingle | Bipana Paudel Timilsena Saliou Niassy Emily Kimathi Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman Irmgard Seidl-Adams Mark Wamalwa Henri E. Z. Tonnang Sunday Ekesi David P. Hughes Edwin G. Rajotte Sevgan Subramanian Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns Scientific Reports |
| title | Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns |
| title_full | Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns |
| title_fullStr | Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns |
| title_short | Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns |
| title_sort | potential distribution of fall armyworm in africa and beyond considering climate change and irrigation patterns |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04369-3 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bipanapaudeltimilsena potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT saliouniassy potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT emilykimathi potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT elfatihmabdelrahman potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT irmgardseidladams potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT markwamalwa potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT henrieztonnang potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT sundayekesi potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT davidphughes potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT edwingrajotte potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns AT sevgansubramanian potentialdistributionoffallarmyworminafricaandbeyondconsideringclimatechangeandirrigationpatterns |