Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study
Objective Until effective treatments and vaccines are made readily and widely available, preventative behavioural health measures will be central to the SARS-CoV-2 public health response. While current recommendations are grounded in general infectious disease prevention practices, it is still not e...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMJ Publishing Group
2021-09-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/9/e052025.full |
| _version_ | 1826990370193408000 |
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| author | Gregory Nah Eric Vittinghoff Gregory M Marcus David Wen Anthony Lin Jeffrey Olgin Noah Peyser Sidney Aung Sean Joyce Vivian Yang Janet Hwang Robert Avram Geoffrey H Tison Alexis Beatty Ryan Runge Xochitl Butcher Cathy Horner Helena Eitel Mark Pletcher |
| author_facet | Gregory Nah Eric Vittinghoff Gregory M Marcus David Wen Anthony Lin Jeffrey Olgin Noah Peyser Sidney Aung Sean Joyce Vivian Yang Janet Hwang Robert Avram Geoffrey H Tison Alexis Beatty Ryan Runge Xochitl Butcher Cathy Horner Helena Eitel Mark Pletcher |
| author_sort | Gregory Nah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective Until effective treatments and vaccines are made readily and widely available, preventative behavioural health measures will be central to the SARS-CoV-2 public health response. While current recommendations are grounded in general infectious disease prevention practices, it is still not entirely understood which particular behaviours or exposures meaningfully affect one’s own risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our objective is to identify individual-level factors associated with one’s personal risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.Design Prospective cohort study of adult participants from 26 March 2020 to 8 October 2020.Setting The COVID-19 Citizen Science Study, an international, community and mobile-based study collecting daily, weekly and monthly surveys in a prospective and time-updated manner.Participants All adult participants over the age of 18 years were eligible for enrolment.Primary outcome measure The primary outcome was incident SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed via PCR or antigen testing.Results 28 575 unique participants contributed 2 479 149 participant-days of data across 99 different countries. Of these participants without a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of enrolment, 112 developed an incident infection. Pooled logistic regression models showed that increased age was associated with lower risk (OR 0.98 per year, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.00, p=0.019), whereas increased number of non-household contacts (OR 1.10 per 10 contacts, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p=0.024), attending events of at least 10 people (OR 1.26 per 10 events, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.50, p=0.007) and restaurant visits (OR 1.95 per 10 visits, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.68, p<0.001) were associated with significantly higher risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection.Conclusions Our study identified three modifiable health behaviours, namely the number of non-household contacts, attending large gatherings and restaurant visits, which may meaningfully influence individual-level risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:22:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-673b9bc9ab5640ffbfe2ba155f2b3193 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-18T08:19:33Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj.art-673b9bc9ab5640ffbfe2ba155f2b31932024-11-03T13:45:15ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552021-09-0111910.1136/bmjopen-2021-052025Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort studyGregory Nah0Eric Vittinghoff1Gregory M Marcus2David Wen3Anthony Lin4Jeffrey Olgin5Noah Peyser6Sidney Aung7Sean Joyce8Vivian Yang9Janet Hwang10Robert Avram11Geoffrey H Tison12Alexis Beatty13Ryan Runge14Xochitl Butcher15Cathy Horner16Helena Eitel17Mark Pletcher18Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA2 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA3 Department of Cardiac Electrophysiology, Division of Cardiology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Pathology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USADepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USAEpidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USAObjective Until effective treatments and vaccines are made readily and widely available, preventative behavioural health measures will be central to the SARS-CoV-2 public health response. While current recommendations are grounded in general infectious disease prevention practices, it is still not entirely understood which particular behaviours or exposures meaningfully affect one’s own risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our objective is to identify individual-level factors associated with one’s personal risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.Design Prospective cohort study of adult participants from 26 March 2020 to 8 October 2020.Setting The COVID-19 Citizen Science Study, an international, community and mobile-based study collecting daily, weekly and monthly surveys in a prospective and time-updated manner.Participants All adult participants over the age of 18 years were eligible for enrolment.Primary outcome measure The primary outcome was incident SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed via PCR or antigen testing.Results 28 575 unique participants contributed 2 479 149 participant-days of data across 99 different countries. Of these participants without a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of enrolment, 112 developed an incident infection. Pooled logistic regression models showed that increased age was associated with lower risk (OR 0.98 per year, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.00, p=0.019), whereas increased number of non-household contacts (OR 1.10 per 10 contacts, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p=0.024), attending events of at least 10 people (OR 1.26 per 10 events, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.50, p=0.007) and restaurant visits (OR 1.95 per 10 visits, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.68, p<0.001) were associated with significantly higher risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection.Conclusions Our study identified three modifiable health behaviours, namely the number of non-household contacts, attending large gatherings and restaurant visits, which may meaningfully influence individual-level risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/9/e052025.full |
| spellingShingle | Gregory Nah Eric Vittinghoff Gregory M Marcus David Wen Anthony Lin Jeffrey Olgin Noah Peyser Sidney Aung Sean Joyce Vivian Yang Janet Hwang Robert Avram Geoffrey H Tison Alexis Beatty Ryan Runge Xochitl Butcher Cathy Horner Helena Eitel Mark Pletcher Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study BMJ Open |
| title | Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study |
| title_full | Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study |
| title_fullStr | Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study |
| title_short | Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study |
| title_sort | predictors of incident sars cov 2 infections in an international prospective cohort study |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/9/e052025.full |
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