Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun
AbstractDue to climate change, the future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk is more likely in the Himalayas. Despite several GLOF studies, little attention has been given to the combined surge that can result from a pair of upstream-downstream glacial lakes. We chose Upper and Lower Barun glac...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2023.2266219 |
| _version_ | 1797389208281677824 |
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| author | Manish Raj Gouli Kaiheng Hu Nitesh Khadka Rocky Talchabhadel |
| author_facet | Manish Raj Gouli Kaiheng Hu Nitesh Khadka Rocky Talchabhadel |
| author_sort | Manish Raj Gouli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | AbstractDue to climate change, the future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk is more likely in the Himalayas. Despite several GLOF studies, little attention has been given to the combined surge that can result from a pair of upstream-downstream glacial lakes. We chose Upper and Lower Barun glacial lakes as a pilot study due to the region’s increasing population and hydropower investments and the possible outbursts of upper-lower glacial lakes. This study mainly considered four scenarios (100 and 50% breach combination of upper-lower lakes), using a two-dimensional dam break model and inundation propagation. Based on our observations, the glaciers in the study area shrank by 33 km2, and the two glacial lakes expanded by 2.06 km2 between 1976 and 2020. The modeling result suggests that the single flood triggered by Upper Barun cannot travel beyond 50 km; however, the combined flow from the lakes could reach over 85 km. Our results illustrate that at least 60 buildings, motorable bridges, and infrastructures of Arun hydropower along the river course have high damage potential. The study insights can be helpful for effectively planning and formulating various disaster risk reduction initiatives to mitigate the likely effects of glacial lake(s) outbursts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:52:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-675895ab1ea7415c84a3d85557dd20f8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:52:30Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| spelling | doaj.art-675895ab1ea7415c84a3d85557dd20f82023-12-16T08:49:47ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132023-12-0114110.1080/19475705.2023.2266219Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower BarunManish Raj Gouli0Kaiheng Hu1Nitesh Khadka2Rocky Talchabhadel3Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan, ChinaInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan, ChinaInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USAAbstractDue to climate change, the future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk is more likely in the Himalayas. Despite several GLOF studies, little attention has been given to the combined surge that can result from a pair of upstream-downstream glacial lakes. We chose Upper and Lower Barun glacial lakes as a pilot study due to the region’s increasing population and hydropower investments and the possible outbursts of upper-lower glacial lakes. This study mainly considered four scenarios (100 and 50% breach combination of upper-lower lakes), using a two-dimensional dam break model and inundation propagation. Based on our observations, the glaciers in the study area shrank by 33 km2, and the two glacial lakes expanded by 2.06 km2 between 1976 and 2020. The modeling result suggests that the single flood triggered by Upper Barun cannot travel beyond 50 km; however, the combined flow from the lakes could reach over 85 km. Our results illustrate that at least 60 buildings, motorable bridges, and infrastructures of Arun hydropower along the river course have high damage potential. The study insights can be helpful for effectively planning and formulating various disaster risk reduction initiatives to mitigate the likely effects of glacial lake(s) outbursts.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2023.2266219GLOFdam breakcombinedhydrodynamicNepal Himalaya |
| spellingShingle | Manish Raj Gouli Kaiheng Hu Nitesh Khadka Rocky Talchabhadel Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk GLOF dam break combined hydrodynamic Nepal Himalaya |
| title | Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun |
| title_full | Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun |
| title_fullStr | Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun |
| title_short | Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun |
| title_sort | hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in nepal himalaya unfolding combined outbursts of upper and lower barun |
| topic | GLOF dam break combined hydrodynamic Nepal Himalaya |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2023.2266219 |
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