Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2
IntroductionInvasive alien plants (IAPs) are major hazards to biodiversity, human health, and the agricultural economy. As one of the most aggressive species of IAPs, the distribution area of Centaurea solstitialis L. has increased exponentially in the past two years since its invasion into Xinjiang...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1113474/full |
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| author | Tao Jia Yuhan Qi Haoxiang Zhao Xiaoqing Xian Jianyu Li Hongkun Huang Wentao Yu Wan-xue Liu |
| author_facet | Tao Jia Yuhan Qi Haoxiang Zhao Xiaoqing Xian Jianyu Li Hongkun Huang Wentao Yu Wan-xue Liu |
| author_sort | Tao Jia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | IntroductionInvasive alien plants (IAPs) are major hazards to biodiversity, human health, and the agricultural economy. As one of the most aggressive species of IAPs, the distribution area of Centaurea solstitialis L. has increased exponentially in the past two years since its invasion into Xinjiang, China, in July 2014. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of C. solstitialis in China can provide theoretical support for preventing the continued spread of this weed.MethodsIn this study, based on 5,969 valid occurrence records of C. solstitialis and 33 environmental variables, we constructed an ensemble model to predict suitable habitats for C. solstitialis under climate change scenarios.ResultsOur results showed that the mean true skill statistic (TSS) values, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) for the ensemble model were 0.954, 0.996, and 0.943, respectively. The ensemble model yielded more precise predictions than those of the single model. Temperature seasonality (Bio4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and human influence index (HII) have significantly disrupted the PGDs of C. solstitialis in China. The total (high) suitability habitat area of C. solstitialis in China was 275.91 × 104 (67.78 × 104) km2, accounting for 71.26 (7.06)% of China. The PGDs of C. solstitialis in China under the current climate were mainly in East China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Anhui), Central China (Henan, southwestern Shanxi, southern Shaanxi, southern Gansu, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, and Guizhou), and South China (southern Tibet, eastern Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Taiwan). Under future climate scenarios, the total suitability habitat area for C. solstitialis will expand, whereas the high suitability habitat area will decrease.DiscussionThe main manifestation is that the shift of southeast China into a moderate suitability habitat, and the total suitability habitats will be extended to northwest China. More focus needs to be placed on preventing further spread of C. solstitialis in northwest China. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:45:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6765b74bff864b36b43d0513132207f8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-701X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:45:51Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-6765b74bff864b36b43d0513132207f82023-02-22T07:39:21ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution2296-701X2023-02-011110.3389/fevo.2023.11134741113474Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2Tao Jia0Yuhan Qi1Haoxiang Zhao2Xiaoqing Xian3Jianyu Li4Hongkun Huang5Wentao Yu6Wan-xue Liu7Rural Energy and Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Plant Protection, Fujian Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Fuzhou, ChinaRural Energy and Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, ChinaFujian Key Laboratory for Technology Research of Inspection and Quarantine, Technology Centre of Fuzhou Customs, Fuzhou, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, ChinaIntroductionInvasive alien plants (IAPs) are major hazards to biodiversity, human health, and the agricultural economy. As one of the most aggressive species of IAPs, the distribution area of Centaurea solstitialis L. has increased exponentially in the past two years since its invasion into Xinjiang, China, in July 2014. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of C. solstitialis in China can provide theoretical support for preventing the continued spread of this weed.MethodsIn this study, based on 5,969 valid occurrence records of C. solstitialis and 33 environmental variables, we constructed an ensemble model to predict suitable habitats for C. solstitialis under climate change scenarios.ResultsOur results showed that the mean true skill statistic (TSS) values, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) for the ensemble model were 0.954, 0.996, and 0.943, respectively. The ensemble model yielded more precise predictions than those of the single model. Temperature seasonality (Bio4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and human influence index (HII) have significantly disrupted the PGDs of C. solstitialis in China. The total (high) suitability habitat area of C. solstitialis in China was 275.91 × 104 (67.78 × 104) km2, accounting for 71.26 (7.06)% of China. The PGDs of C. solstitialis in China under the current climate were mainly in East China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Anhui), Central China (Henan, southwestern Shanxi, southern Shaanxi, southern Gansu, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, and Guizhou), and South China (southern Tibet, eastern Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Taiwan). Under future climate scenarios, the total suitability habitat area for C. solstitialis will expand, whereas the high suitability habitat area will decrease.DiscussionThe main manifestation is that the shift of southeast China into a moderate suitability habitat, and the total suitability habitats will be extended to northwest China. More focus needs to be placed on preventing further spread of C. solstitialis in northwest China.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1113474/fullCentaurea solstitialisclimate changeensemble modelinvasive alien plantspotential geographical distribution |
| spellingShingle | Tao Jia Yuhan Qi Haoxiang Zhao Xiaoqing Xian Jianyu Li Hongkun Huang Wentao Yu Wan-xue Liu Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2 Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Centaurea solstitialis climate change ensemble model invasive alien plants potential geographical distribution |
| title | Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2 |
| title_full | Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2 |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2 |
| title_short | Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2 |
| title_sort | estimation of climate induced increased risk of centaurea solstitialis l invasion in china an integrated study based on biomod2 |
| topic | Centaurea solstitialis climate change ensemble model invasive alien plants potential geographical distribution |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1113474/full |
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