Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners
<p>This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean modelling suite, and a stochastic surrogate model. The CMeEWS, which is not operational due t...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2427/2021/nhess-21-2427-2021.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian
meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air
pressure and sea level observations, a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean
modelling suite, and a stochastic surrogate model. The CMeEWS, which is not
operational due to a lack of numerical resources, is used retroactively to
reproduce the multiple events observed in the eastern Adriatic between
11 and 19 May 2020. The performances of the CMeEWS
deterministic models are then assessed with an innovative method using
energy banners based on temporal and spatial spectral analysis of the
high-pass-filtered air pressure and sea level fields. It is found that
deterministic simulations largely fail to forecast these extreme events at
endangered locations along the Croatian coast, mostly due to a systematic
northwestward shift of the atmospheric disturbances. Additionally, the use
of combined ocean and atmospheric model results, instead of atmospheric
model results only, is not found to improve the selection of the transects
used to extract the atmospheric parameters feeding the stochastic
meteotsunami surrogate model. Finally, in operational mode, the stochastic
surrogate model would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed
events but also set off some false alarms. Due to the uncertainties
associated with operational modelling of meteotsunamigenic disturbances, the
stochastic approach has thus proven to overcome the failures of the
deterministic forecasts and should be further developed.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |