Incorporation of Pilot Factors into Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Accidents from 2008 to 2020: A Data-Driven Bayesian Network Approach
Pilot factor is worth considering when analyzing the causes of civil aviation accidents. This study introduces a data-driven Bayesian network (BN) approach to investigating the joint causal effects of pilot and other factors on civil aviation safety. A total number of 163 individual pilot-related ac...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Aerospace |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/10/1/9 |
| _version_ | 1797439143716847616 |
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| author | Chenyang Zhang Chenglin Liu Haiyue Liu Chaozhe Jiang Liping Fu Chao Wen Weiwei Cao |
| author_facet | Chenyang Zhang Chenglin Liu Haiyue Liu Chaozhe Jiang Liping Fu Chao Wen Weiwei Cao |
| author_sort | Chenyang Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Pilot factor is worth considering when analyzing the causes of civil aviation accidents. This study introduces a data-driven Bayesian network (BN) approach to investigating the joint causal effects of pilot and other factors on civil aviation safety. A total number of 163 individual pilot-related accidents in the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aviation accident database from 2008 to 2020 are analyzed, focusing on eliciting the causal effects of various potential risk factors, including pilot factors, on civil aviation accidents. The modeling of the interdependency among the risk influencing factors (RIFs) and their causal contributory effect on the accident outcome is structured by a tree augmented network (TAN) and validated by sensitivity analysis. The novelty of this study is to incorporate pilot factors derived from the civil aviation accident database into risk analysis, combined with other external factors. The results indicate that weather conditions and flight phases are more correlated with casualty types of civil aviation accidents than pilot action and decision, and three other pilot factors only contribute to fatal injury in civil aviation accidents. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T11:48:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-67e0fff549a84b8d9ce5dbc11b0a2bf6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2226-4310 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T11:48:26Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Aerospace |
| spelling | doaj.art-67e0fff549a84b8d9ce5dbc11b0a2bf62023-11-30T23:18:02ZengMDPI AGAerospace2226-43102022-12-01101910.3390/aerospace10010009Incorporation of Pilot Factors into Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Accidents from 2008 to 2020: A Data-Driven Bayesian Network ApproachChenyang Zhang0Chenglin Liu1Haiyue Liu2Chaozhe Jiang3Liping Fu4Chao Wen5Weiwei Cao6School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, ChinaSchool of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, ChinaSchool of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, ChinaSchool of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, CanadaSchool of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, ChinaKey Laboratory of Flight Techniques and Flight Safety, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, ChinaPilot factor is worth considering when analyzing the causes of civil aviation accidents. This study introduces a data-driven Bayesian network (BN) approach to investigating the joint causal effects of pilot and other factors on civil aviation safety. A total number of 163 individual pilot-related accidents in the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aviation accident database from 2008 to 2020 are analyzed, focusing on eliciting the causal effects of various potential risk factors, including pilot factors, on civil aviation accidents. The modeling of the interdependency among the risk influencing factors (RIFs) and their causal contributory effect on the accident outcome is structured by a tree augmented network (TAN) and validated by sensitivity analysis. The novelty of this study is to incorporate pilot factors derived from the civil aviation accident database into risk analysis, combined with other external factors. The results indicate that weather conditions and flight phases are more correlated with casualty types of civil aviation accidents than pilot action and decision, and three other pilot factors only contribute to fatal injury in civil aviation accidents.https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/10/1/9civil aviation accidentsrisk analysispilot factorsdata-driven Bayesian networkcasualty types |
| spellingShingle | Chenyang Zhang Chenglin Liu Haiyue Liu Chaozhe Jiang Liping Fu Chao Wen Weiwei Cao Incorporation of Pilot Factors into Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Accidents from 2008 to 2020: A Data-Driven Bayesian Network Approach Aerospace civil aviation accidents risk analysis pilot factors data-driven Bayesian network casualty types |
| title | Incorporation of Pilot Factors into Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Accidents from 2008 to 2020: A Data-Driven Bayesian Network Approach |
| title_full | Incorporation of Pilot Factors into Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Accidents from 2008 to 2020: A Data-Driven Bayesian Network Approach |
| title_fullStr | Incorporation of Pilot Factors into Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Accidents from 2008 to 2020: A Data-Driven Bayesian Network Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Incorporation of Pilot Factors into Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Accidents from 2008 to 2020: A Data-Driven Bayesian Network Approach |
| title_short | Incorporation of Pilot Factors into Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Accidents from 2008 to 2020: A Data-Driven Bayesian Network Approach |
| title_sort | incorporation of pilot factors into risk analysis of civil aviation accidents from 2008 to 2020 a data driven bayesian network approach |
| topic | civil aviation accidents risk analysis pilot factors data-driven Bayesian network casualty types |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/10/1/9 |
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